S&P500 signal - Trading the Line

Cover Signal at 2390

Pre-market:

Overnight markets have not held onto yesterday's gains and are possibly looking to test the previous 2 days' lows in early trade.

This could be a critical test because we are starting to see a challenge of the important rising line from the 13 April low at the same time as the expiry of the major arm of the red amalgamation T structure, as well as the possibility of failure at a double top.

Failure here would lead me to assume that the the red amalgamation T structure – a double bottom structure – is more dominant than the later T structure from the most recent low, and this could present significant difficulties moving forward, especially at the point where strength is required to break out above 2400.

If that becomes the case it may also be necessary to re-draw the later T structure as it could be projecting echo lows rather than highs.

—

Recovery today if it occurs will change that outlook

Steve Rushton May 11, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Troy

Do not trust the horse, Trojans.
Whatever it is, I fear the Greeks even when they bring gifts.
– Virgil, in the Aeneid (c. 29 – 19 BC), II, 4

Market backs away from the Buy Signal on Thursday and it will need re-confirming as the choppy recent nature of the market returns to add yet another layer of resistance.

The T volume oscillator fails at the zero line (again), but the Osc oscillator appears to be in recovery.

SKEW heads higher to extreme levels, reflecting the perceived event risk to markets, financials and currency related to the French election etc

Expect a volatile week ahead.

—

Futures currently indicating a very strong start to the week and a huge move up well above the Buy Signal level, looking like we will be negotiating the resistance levels in the 2370s, 2380s and 2390s. The small T drawn at the most recent low gives strength for a high today, and an extension into the 27th.

How the market deals with today's expected 'pop' will be quite revealing.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton April 23, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S/T BUY Signal above 2348

A nice strong push upwards off the support line at 2341 finds the market playing at the upper level again and IF the market holds onto the gains, we have a Buy Signal above 2348.

As with yesterday, if this is sold into it and the market is going to continue its choppy range-bound behaviour then a visit back down to the recent support levels may be in order.

Steve Rushton April 20, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Jefferson

“I'm a greater believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it”
– Thomas Jefferson

An S/T Sell Signal below 2350 as gravity takes hold.

More fun again with the market breaking down in early trade and then bouncing off 2341, in a failed repeat rally.

Late afternoon confirmed the jittery feel to the day but 2342 was heavily defended into the close.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton April 13, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

April Fool indeed

A Sell Signal generated in early trade but support found at 2345 – just above the rising angle from the most recent low – and a recovery into the afternoon cancelled out the Sell Signal, for now.

We are very much within the dangerous chopshop zone – where Sell Signals become Buy Signals and vice versa – and we should expect more chop in the days to come until the market makes a strong exit one way or another.

The T volume oscillator turns negative, flashing a warning signal, and weakening the current small T.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton April 3, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S/T Buy Signal at 2354

Market pushing away at the averages and above 2354 and assuming that it can hold onto this level we are back on a Buy Signal.

Keep an eye out for hints of a reversal and hedge your risk accordingly.

Steve Rushton March 28, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

The Common Raven

And the silken sad uncertain rustling of each purple curtain
Thrilled me – filled me with fantastic terrors never felt before;
So that now, to still the beating of my heart, I stood repeating,
Tis some visitor entreating entrance at my chamber door –
Some late visitor entreating entrance at my chamber door; –
This it is, and nothing more.

– Edgar Allan Poe, The Raven

BUY Signal covered at 2370, and an S/T SELL Signal at 2363:

The market pops out at the open and challenges the downward descending trend.
Nope, this common raven is selling and taking the market way down.

Admittedly we have had some warnings, pressure upon the recent Buy Signal and the recent selling into strength, as well as the historically high Skew reading.

Failure of the small T of 9 March now shows us that there is another new T structure under construction.
Keep an eye on the T volume oscillator for any signs of recovery.

And so now we are on alert for a new climax low to occur and set up the next major T structure…

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton March 21, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

S/T Buy Signal at 2375, but…

An S/T BUY Signal triggered in early trade at 2375, but weakened by the pop and drop at the descending resistance line, followed by a Buy it back push into the close. Also characteristic chopshop behaviour that seems to occur when the market is within the mid-channel area.

A clean exit from the short term descending trend would have been more favorable to the buy signal, and the T volume oscillator requires further follow through to establish the new small possible T structure.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Steve Rushton March 11, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Gap up into Buy Signal

Futures indicating a Gap up into the descending resistance and Buy Signal area, suggesting that the possible small T mentioned is good for a move back up towards the all-time highs.

Of course failure at the descending resistance, about 2372 would bring that back into doubt.

Steve Rushton March 10, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Cover Signal at 2372

Market drops below the Buy Signal level and fails to recover by end of day.
We wait for the next signal.

Steve Rushton March 7, 2017No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
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