S&P500 signal - Trading the Line

Thunder

And she turned around and took me by the hand and said,
I've lost control again.
And how I'll never know just why or understand,
She said I've lost control again.

Joy Division, She's Lost Control, 1979
(Bernard Sumner, Ian Curtis, Peter Hook, Stephen Morris)

–

A 20 point drop into the Sell Signal area, a slight bounce which fails and then the selling really starts.

An S/T Sell signal at 2794.

An OSC Sell Signal.

T volume oscillator at a very low level already (-89), so we are now looking for a low to occur and a strong bounce at some point but the market will need a significant amount of stabilising first after this shock.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton February 3, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Marianne

Now so long, Marianne
It's time that we began to laugh
And cry and cry and laugh about it all again

Well, you know that I love to live with you
But you make me forget so very much
I forget to pray for the angels
And then the angels forget to pray for us

Leonard Cohen, So Long, Marianne, 1967

–

A gap down below the cover signal level without any significant recovery, suggesting that the market needs some further stabilisation.

Zooming out you can see that the recent peak synchronised with the projection for a high from the 15 March peak, reinforced by similar projections from the smaller more recent structures.

There is the possibility for another high associated with the earlier peak on 01 March – another attempt at a high perhaps?

We are now looking for some kind of low to occur. The T volume oscillator has been in decline and forming a cash-build up line since the 18 December high and is already at a level associated with lows (-55) though of course it can go much lower. This is the fuel for the next advance. Look for stabilisation in the oscillator and then a move upwards through the cash-build up line to initiate the next T structure.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton January 31, 2018No Comments

S&P500 signal

COVER Signal below 2839

Market gapped down below the Cover Signal line and although it stabilised throughout the day it failed to recovery back above.

We will wait for the market to stabilise and make the next signal.

Steve Rushton January 30, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Perihelion

Market opens the year in true style with a gap up and go into a continuation BUY signal at 2686.

The extremely bullish nature of yesterday carries a warning with it as Put/Call ratios drop to a low not seen since December 2016 and suggests some element of panic-buying as well as short-covering.

Today is another pulse high, and so we might expect only a little follow through on the current buy signal, and the Osc oscillator sits just above the Sell signal level still suggesting that we will not see significantly higher prices, yet.

And so, some caution still remains, but with further upcoming projections from the T structures for tomorrow and Monday suggesting that we may also see another peak shortly, and another echo high early next week, perhaps to bring in some selling afterwards. Expect some choppiness and some volatility.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton January 2, 2018No Comments

S&P500 signal

COVER Signal at 2676

The market dumps into the last 10 minutes of trade and closes below the ST Buy / Cover Signal line at 2676.

We await the next Signal.

Steve Rushton December 29, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Mare Imbrium

A gap up open cancels out the previous Sell Signal and the strength triggers an S/T BUY Signal at 2583.

A visit to 2590 shows some resistance at a declining angle, but this is so close to the previous all time high that it would seem likely that this is temporary.

The rapid turnaround suggests to me that we are now seeing additional strength in the larger T structure and that the projections into late November and December are now active. Yesterday's rise in the T volume oscillator indicating strong breadth supports this thinking.

Yesterday was an echo high (but perhaps a lesser one) and today is a pulse high. There is therefore always the possibility of a rapid move back down due to profit-taking on yesterday's snap back to the high.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton November 17, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S/T SELL Signal active below 2571

Strong selling into a weak open triggers a S/T Sell signal at 2565 in early trade.

Watch for a bounce and/or selling into any recovery from this weakness.

–

Strong bounce off the early morning low in-line with recent action.

–

No follow through above the Sell Signal level and so the system is signalling short, for now.

Obviously its quite a close call with the market hovering just below the signal line for most of the day and there has not been much selling since the open.

Market looks like its in some kind of holding or waiting mode and I am not sure that I would recommend holding a short position overnight, due to the risk of a gap up tomorrow.

Hedge accordingly.

Steve Rushton November 15, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Milvian Bridge

Yesterday's gap up open triggered another S/T Buy Signal at 2568* and subsequently a strong rally into 2580.

Note that when a gap up holds firm the strong momentum associated with this move continues into a strong close at the highs – a gap and go close at the highs.

Note also that the Osc oscillator – a lagging indicator – is now making a Sell Signal. Although this does not necessarily mean that price cannot go higher it does suggest that price may not make significant advances yet as it is usually associated with consolidation phases.

In the meantime the current active large T structure* that is centred at the August low continues to push the market higher in-line with expectations. The precision of the last 3 important projections and the renewed strength confirmed by the Buy signal supports the projections for further highs in due course.

* If you would like to receive the price trigger levels prior to the open, and/or learn more about T Theory and how it accurately projects highs in the market, please subscribe to the service.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton October 28, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Cover Signal confirmed at 2559

A nasty drop and some relentless selling in the morning, followed by a sharp bounce and rally off the Mid-channel which is often an initial support on first visit.

Technically some damage done and just failed to close back above the important Buy Signal line.

Therefore a cover signal at 2559 for now whilst the market stabilises.

And that is a nasty declining angle from the all time high that we will need to negociate moving forwards

Steve Rushton October 25, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Recovery above 2496

A strong recovery and holding onto the Buy Signal with a tight close back just above 2496.

Steve Rushton September 25, 2017No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

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The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt