crapshoot ?

Mixed signals. Wait for the oscillator to confirm the move, and/or wait for a closing price above or below the current congestion.

The upside would appear to be rather limited, and so I am inclined to favour the downside. However recent action is a reminder of how bullish the market is/has been.

The recent increase in daily volatility since beginning of 2014 is also suggesting that I will need to increase the intraday stops for the signals, hence 2 recent sell signals at the low of the day.

Chart of the S&P500 for March 26 2014

large move ahead

We did see a recovery of sorts so that the market is sitting right at the sell line. Frustrating indeed.

We are setting up for a large move, so we need to watch the oscillator now. If it recovers and moves above the upper black band then the large move may well be up. But at the moment the signals are sideways to downwards.

Chart of S&P500 for March 25th 2014

out of the woods ?

Starting to resolve to the upside.
Keep an eye on the oscillator as a move back above the black band would signal further strength and would probably be synchonised with a breakout to new highs. Short term target is 1894 – see what happens above.

Chart for S&P500 for March 21st 2014

dont fight the fed

Oops – if in doubt press the sell button! So the news is in and maybe that's all we needed.

Not quite a Sell signal so we will need to watch the action over the next few days to find out which way is the one of least resistance. Nice bounce off the previous support line at 1. so we should respect that for today.

chart of S&P500 for 20 March 2014

 

Caution required

It does look like we are heading back to new highs for a re-test of 1883, perhaps the upper trend line (5) and target for March 27 (small MOB)

Diagonal resistance line 4. appears to be taken out

Keep an eye on line 1. which we broke thru and then recovered. A second break of this line should signal a move down to line 2.

The oscillator makes a late sell signal, suggesting weakness in this recent move and this needs to be resolved either way.

Chart of S&P500 for March 18, 2014

S&P500 intraday LONG Signal at 1866

With the move above 1866 a Buy signal is occurring. Be prepared for a whipsaw back to the short side in the next few days. Stop and reverse position below 1851.5. The oscillator is starting to give a sell warning signal indicating weakness – I will hold the earlier L/T short position from March 12 as a hedge.

Cancelling the S/T Sell signal registers a loss of 24 points

1859

Flatlining most of the day around 1859 – admittedly close to today's 1860 Buy signal level – but really needs to see a strong close 1862+  to commit to the Buy signal.

1. The oscillator will most likely make a sell signal tomorrow
2. Diagonal resistance at 1872 today, 1870 tomorrow needs to be cleared

Mixed signals, understandable given the perceived risk to global markets.