S&P500 signal

With Friday's relief rally (after Futures sell-off overnight) the market made a Buy Signal during the last few hours and closed above 1929.

A rally to the mid-line at 1955-8 is now on the cards, and possibly a move back to the all-time high for a second look (maybe a kiss goodbye?)

Get is still saying resistance at 1944 and possible lowere low but the T structure is suggestive of a rally into early October. A new high in the 2020's – not out of the question. Certainly if the Russian problem is over?

Yesterday's non response to the Fed + the overnight selloff (Argentina probable default) indicate that a Sell Signal should occur today at the open. It is clear that we need a pullback – but how far down?

Initial support indicated by MOB is 1945 at the 55EMA, then 1935, then 1920s.

As sell signals can rapidly develop into Buy signals at lower levels, I have drawn a possible T structure that could develop out of this, and will re-draw daily.

Short-term continuation buy signal at 1973, and the target for the End of the 2 short-term T structures would now appear to be 1990. Option interest for friday expiration also suggests resistance at 1990 and support at 1950.

The oscillator sell signal remains in place indicating the toppy nature of the market.

An interesting recovery from off the lows yesterday, indicating that the bulls are still wanting to buy the dips.
Can we grind on higher to make the projected peak at 2000?

The oscillator sell signal suggests that the upside is now limited to 1985 or perhaps a stretch to 2000 which may be the surprise for next week?

Expect toppy and choppy though August.

Yesterday's Fed induced rally looks like it wasn't enough to prevent the oscillator declining and will most probably create a sell signal today – unless we get a rally of +10 points or so. Unlikely at the moment due to the negative futures (-6), but not out of the question.

An oscillator sell signal isn't necessarily a short signal but does imply that any rallies will not have legs and that it is relatively safe to sell credit spreads above the recent highs.

A move below 1954 sets up a short signal.

Short term stop hit at 1968, and closed below, indicating the possibility of a deeper correction.

It looks like we did have a momentum peak on July 3.
Note that momentum peaks are often 65-66 days apart and a re-test will sometimes follow to set up a steeper decline.
If we recover from here I would expect to see a re-test of 1985, perhaps even a strike at 2000 towards the end of next week for July expiration.
Otherwise a decline to 1940 may be on.

Lots of rising support lines in the 1950 area, so benefit of doubt still on.