S&P500 signal

Oops – an ugly reversal of the previous signal.

Of course the Fed may massage the markets. Otherwise we test the previous low of 1905 and see what happens next.

As suspected yesterday's rally was a fake out.

Failure at the mid-point and penetration through the 55 ema and gann support line S2 add to the ugliness.

Of course we are now due a dead cat bounce and a rally back up to the 21 ema (1991) would provide excellent short entry.

Stopped out on S/T at 1997 and L/T at 1993 for small net loss of -3 points

The Blue T structure certainly does seem to be working out, in which case expect to see a few days of weakness, perhaps a test of the 55 at about 1975 and S2 in the low 1970s.

And then an attempt at a rally into October 1/2

Market starting to look a bit weaker now, but this ol lady aint done just yet
(maybe soon though)

I guess that leaks from the Fed meeting lifted the spirits of the mkt today and appear to have set up a Buy Signal.

As we have a tight squeeze in place now less than 30 pts – watch the action at either 2011 or 1980 for an indication of the move -> 2050 or 1950.

Oscillator gives us a Sell Signal or Sell Warning – which has in the past warned that price may only make a token new high before selling off.

It is important not to think of that as a short signal until we see a confirmation signal such as a move below the mid-point or a short-trigger (8/21 crossover), but does allow us to consider entering an OTM call credit spread as a hedge.

Today's action brings us back within easy strike of the all time high again and yesterdays low held (for now). All good signs that the price structure is now following the split centre (blue).

We should then theoretically grind higher into september 17, pullback into the 23rd, and maybe higher into the 30th.

With recovery back above 1995-1998, and confirmed by a close above 2006, the S/T Buy Signal is re-affirmed.