S&P500 signal - Trading the Line

more highs ahead?

I have re-drawn the price momentum T structures using Terry Laundry's Volume oscillator rather than simply using price spikes and I beleive that these are now more accurately describing the market's momentum.

If correct it suggests that the larger long-range T centred at February 4th is more dominant and is pointing to another potential high around June 16th and IF the small red T works out then it too is pointing to June 13th.

The small red T needs to see a break higher above Friday's close at 1900 and therefore suggests that unless we see a break lower tomorrow, we could expect a move up into the R1, R2 area mid June.

Assuming we take out 1902, the previously unconfirmed Buy Signal is now confirmed.

Steve Rushton May 26, 2014No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Sell Short Signal intraday at 1873

With today's move down to 1870 in early trading, we have a confirmation of the expected move lower.
Of course with option expiration tomorrow we can expect a short term bounce recovery and that may give a better opportunity to go short.

Steve Rushton May 15, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

fudge the fed

Closed out the May Condor position for a gain of 7.5%, and added a Short position for June at 1920.

The weakening oscillator adds to my suspicions that a down move is coming soon and that the perceived risk is to the downside. Sell in May and then Buy it back again.

Steve Rushton May 9, 2014No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Intraday Buy Signal cancelled at 1860, Short below 1857

A move below 1860 today cancels out yesterday's Buy Signal. The yo-yo continues.

Short Signal now below 1857.

Steve Rushton April 10, 2014No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Buy Signal Intraday at 1869

Assuming that we can hold onto 1869 into this afternoon's close then we have a Buy Signal. The yo-yo-ing continues. Looks like the Fed didn't really mean to upset the market….

Steve Rushton April 9, 2014No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Sell Signal intraday at 1862

With the drop at the open and subsequent failure to rally beyond 1862, we have an intraday Sell signal.Of course we now are back at the lower range of the recent congestion.

Today's action negates the recent recovery in the oscillator, signalling the likelihood of further weakness.

Steve Rushton April 7, 2014No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Sell Signal intraday at 1852

With the move down to 1852 this morning a SELL short signal is occurring.
Lets see if its confirmed by end of day. Looks like the oscillator may be correct.

Steve Rushton March 24, 2014No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S&P500 intraday LONG Signal at 1866

With the move above 1866 a Buy signal is occurring. Be prepared for a whipsaw back to the short side in the next few days. Stop and reverse position below 1851.5. The oscillator is starting to give a sell warning signal indicating weakness – I will hold the earlier L/T short position from March 12 as a hedge.

Cancelling the S/T Sell signal registers a loss of 24 points

Steve Rushton March 18, 2014No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S&P500 Short Signal at 1842

A little late in the day and will quite probably bounce tomorrow but we hit a SHORT ONLY SIGNAL with the penetration below 1843. A move back above 1867 tomorrow will reverse the signal.

Steve Rushton March 13, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Warning signal

Warning signal after a 3rd attempt (and potentially a failure) at 1882, a pullback to 1850-55 now seems likely. If that happens we should get some clarification. Need to see a recovery of at least 1875 to re-consider.

Interesting days ahead.

Steve Rushton March 12, 2014No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

“There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.”
The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt