S&P500 signal

Yesterday's strong action reconfirms the L/T Buy Signal, but we did see failure above the 55EMA so we may need a few days to get through here. Some consolidation is required.

Also we reached the end of the first arm of the current T structure, and so we should expect some profit-taking.

Failure at the 55EMA and dropping back below the mid-point is potentially a L/T Sell signal. Unconfirmed due to the current S/T Buy Signal. It may just be that the market got over-heated. Note RSI 2 had got above 96 on tuesday. With the current volatility it is too close to call, particularly as 1929 was breached only in the last half hour of the day.

Futures are very positive (+13), so it looks like yesterday afternoon's negativity was unfounded.

And another very strong day bringing us back up above the mid-point and providing the Long Term Buy Signal.

Note: the recent correction bounced hard at the 350 ema and that Terry laundry described this as the 'optimum moving average' for the S&P500 – a fantastic buying location for a bounce, a failure there would have significant repercussions (eg August 2008)

A S/T Buy Signal at 1884, which managed to hold into Friday's close depite the afternoon dip.

T volume oscillator provides a Buy Signal as well, indicating short term strength into the 23rd october, and additionally into mid november.

OK, so you get a Buy Signal on monday – you sell.
You get a sell signal on tuesday – you buy.
You get a buy signal on wednesday – you sell.

Notice the magnitude is getting larger – remember the megaphone comments on Sept 23 at 1983.
Notice that the one day rallies are sold into

This must be a bear market cause everyone is getting taken out and beaten up.
This might be expected if we were below the 200 day ma (1904) but we aren't yet.

This leads me to suspect that this may be the tip of a much greater decline, perhaps a manic selloff into late October to re-charge the Bull, perhaps something worse. We have been warned.

A nice relief rally and close above the Buy Signal level of 1960.

Lots of potential resistance above – 55 Ema at 1971 and midpoint at 1979,
but the T Theory volume oscillator looks great.

Assuming that we can get through the resistance and close above 1983, then we have the potential for new highs.

It looks like we have a cluster of highs scheduled for oct 14 and 17 – into expiration.

Oops – an ugly reversal of the previous signal.

Of course the Fed may massage the markets. Otherwise we test the previous low of 1905 and see what happens next.

As suspected yesterday's rally was a fake out.

Failure at the mid-point and penetration through the 55 ema and gann support line S2 add to the ugliness.

Of course we are now due a dead cat bounce and a rally back up to the 21 ema (1991) would provide excellent short entry.

Stopped out on S/T at 1997 and L/T at 1993 for small net loss of -3 points

The Blue T structure certainly does seem to be working out, in which case expect to see a few days of weakness, perhaps a test of the 55 at about 1975 and S2 in the low 1970s.

And then an attempt at a rally into October 1/2

Market starting to look a bit weaker now, but this ol lady aint done just yet
(maybe soon though)