Under pressure

It's the terror of knowing
What this world is about
Watching some good friends
Screaming let me out
Pray tomorrow gets me higher higher high

Under Pressure, Queen & David Bowie, 1982

And sparking on vapors.

Buy Signal under pressure already due to the strong descending resistance at 2295.
And the T volume oscillator turns back down below zero

Market continues the squeeze and tease, maybe we get a few more pops, and short-covering rallies, but this is the Trump T endgame.

Chart of S&P 500 for 07 February 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Squeeze play

Having played all week with the idea of selling, Mr Market decides to re-visit the all time highs with a squeeze play from the perfect 10 position on thursday.

Assuming that this isn't just a pop and drop (which it could be) then we have the possibility of strength into the next arm of the T structure on February 8, but we have significant resistance here to negociate.

This period is very reminiscent of the final few weeks of the the previous T structure associated with the Brexit low in late September – a very choppy and confusing market indeed.

Chart of S&P 500 for 6 February 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions

 

Libra

“There's always more to it.
This is what history consists of.
It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

Don DeLillo, Libra (1988)

Market sits at a perfect 10 and ready for a squeeze – balanced at the 10 day ema in a tight triangle with the averages compressing. Hmm what gives? Expect some volatility soon.

Chart of S&P 500 for 03 February 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions

 

Pop n Drop

As suspected the market ran from Sell trigger level to Buy trigger level at 2288 and reversed at the descending resistance line.
This is Chopshop behaviour and occurs when the balance of forces are too equal and the market is in the Mid-channel area
This may continue for a while but ultimately a volatile exit will occur because this sets up a squeeze.

Yesterday another arm of the large T structure expired adding credence to a peak, and the OSC oscillator gives up its recent strength.

And at the moment 2288 looks like a gap close and good bye to the island above.
Damage done.

It won't take much to push this vulnerable market over now.

Chart of S&P 500 for 02 February 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Holding on

I know what this is…
I have seen one before, many many years ago.
It belonged to a man in a half-remembered dream.
A man possessed of some radical notion.

Inception (2010), Dir. Christopher Nolan

Another short-covering rally off the important 2268 level, and back in the chopshop.
Another important arm of the T structure expires today, and the beginnings of a descending resistance line forming.
But holding onto the short term rising support line, for now.

Chart of S&P 500 for 01 February 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Waiting for a Train

I'll tell you a riddle.
You're waiting for a train…
A train that will take you far away. ..
You know where you hope this train will take you…
but you don't know for sure…
But it doesn't matter.
How can it not matter to you where that train will take you?
… Because you'll be together.

Inception (2010), Dir. Christopher Nolan

Cover Signal yesterday due to the move below 2283, and now we await the next Signal.
Strong short-covering rally off the short term support line, but the market has been significantly weakened.

Chart of S&P 500 for 31 January 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Echo high?

Battle to hold 2295 as market takes a little bit of a breather, and looking like we are close to another major turn on (or near to) the Echo high.

Chart of S&P500 for 28 January 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Pause to digest

“… how important it is in life not necessarily to be strong but to feel strong,
to measure yourself at least once, to find yourself at least once…”
Primo Levi

A pause to digest the recent move to new highs and make a decision whether to continue higher or to re-visit the previous range first.
Strong resistance just above and scheduled highs to negociate.

Chart of S&P 500 for 27 January 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Gap and go

A lovely gap open and rally into the close. Lots of cheers for Dow at 20k and S&Ps at 2299.

Very close to the underneath of the rising line so any failure here has the potential to be a kiss good bye, and also very close to the long term rising trend line from April and August of 2016.

That being said the market looks in great shape with a powerful squeeze underway and the T structure very much alive.

We will keep alert for signs of a turn.

Enjoy your slice of Trump pie while it lasts.

Chart of S&P 500 for 26 January 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Way to go

S/T Buy Signal re-confirmed with move out of the chopshop and congestion of the past few days, and the rise in the T volume oscillator confirms the possibility of a small T with potential into the end of the month.

The conflict of course is the arm of the larger T structure that expired yesterday, and a cluster of scheduled highs today into Friday, and so it remains to be seen whether this has a major or minor effect – a turnaround or a choppy grind higher.

Chart of S&P 500 for 25 January 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.