S&P500 daily update

I know you've deceived me, now here's a surprise
I know that you have 'cause there's magic in my eyes
I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles
Oh yeah
Pete Townshend, (The Who), I Can See for Miles, 1967

Mr Market makes another interesting move up to an important line, and from here (at 2366) we can look back to a rising line from the late February 2015 peak – an important turn.

The T volume oscillator responds and strengthens indicating strong support for the gap and go and suggesting continued higher prices or at the very least a consolidation at these levels.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true.

Point Break, 1991 Dir: Kathryn Bigelow

Bulls bought the early expiration weakness and took the market back up for the logical pin at the recent highs.
Still very much on a Buy Signal and any dips are to be seen as buying opportunities.

The next target is the final arm of the Large T structure which should coincide with the Echo high at the end of the month as well as the first major arm of the alternative later cluster T structure.

Perhaps we can reach out to 2370 before any major pullback in the index. Obviously this is getting somewhat extended and so we will keep an eye on the T volume oscillator for hints of weakness and the beginning of a consolidation period.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Market takes a breather as we move into February expiration and look forward to President's Day.
A bearish tease with the 2240 level, and bulls back in control in afternoon trade.
That looks to me like the pulse high doing its thing…

The next test is to negociate the penultimate arm of the Large (Election low) T structure today – this arm extends back to the price peak on 20 July 2016, the final arm extends back to the oscillator peak on 12 July 2016.

Expect the usual expiration tussle as the market resets for March, and a logical closure pin would be right at the current highs with a predominance of SPY calls at the 235 mark.

There are quite a few sell signals flashing – indicating that the rally is under threat and that we may have a pullback from this level, perhaps prior to the next run up.

But remember that this market has punished the bears repeatedly, and if too many think this is the top they will be rewarded with failure yet again.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

What if everything around you
Isn't quite as it seems
What if all the world you used to know
Is an elaborate dream?
And if you look at your reflection
Is that all you want it to be?
What if you could look right through the cracks
Would you find yourself – find yourself afraid to see?

Trent Reznor (Nine Inch Nails – Right Where it Belongs, from 'With Teeth', 2005)

The market seems unstoppable as it heads into an important pulse high scheduled for today, and continues into the Endgame of the Large 'Trump' T structure. Notice the linearity of the expected Endgame move which was first discussed in the Free Report on 29 January 'Are We There Yet?'

*a Pulse High is one of my proprietary observations that relates to the current bull market's behaviour – read more about this and other important tools in my Explanatory Notes which is available to all of my Members.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Ideas are like fish. If you want to catch little fish, you can stay in the shallow water.
But if you want to catch the big fish, you’ve got to go deeper.
Down deep, the fish are more powerful and more pure.They’re huge and abstract. And they’re very beautiful.

– David Lynch, Catching the Big Fish: Meditation, Consciousness, and Creativity

Whilst observing the additional strength in this market, I have found it fascinating to consider its source.

As you can see from the previous posts I have discussed the appearance of what I call a cluster T structure – a normal T structure is centred over a low in the market but a cluster T structure is centred over a series of lows, and the market gains considerable internal power from a series of lows that do not release to the downside, but release to the upside instead. Call it short covering if you like.

It seems clear that the market has been re-cycling its energy, whilst also continuing to rise – an interesting phenomenon in itself.

Whilst trying to assess where the turn in the market might have been, I am looking at the T volume oscillator for clues, because this will assist in projecting the future highs. However it is also important to compare price action.

It is obvious to me that the market is now using the cash-build up that was produced in the December and January period and that in effect a new T structure has emerged projecting into late March. Because there is no obvious low, the question is where does one place the centre for this new structure?

The blue Cluster T structure drawn below centres on January 19 – the final low of the flat period before the market bounces higher, but I have also drawn an alternative (in red) that is centred at 30 January because this is the final oscillator low before the recent push higher.

Interestingly the action at 30 January into 2nd February is like a series of double taps, and the oscillator makes a W pattern – a signature T Theory pattern for a low.

The market has been building the power that is now being revealed… and it has some way to go.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Thus we find that … Love … is the ancient source of all our highest good. …
For Neither family, nor privilege, nor wealth, nor anything but Love can light that beacon which a man must steer by when he sets out to live the better life.
How shall I describe [love], but [as] that contempt for the vile, and emulation of the good, without neither cities nor citizens are capable of any great or noble work.

Plato, The Symposium, 178d

The T volume oscillator moves higher and above its previous high confirming the new provisionally placed cluster T structure. The placement of this is provisional because there are a number of possible placements – all of which could be correct to some degree.

The OSC oscillator moves above its upper band indicating strong upward momentum.

The total Put/Call ratio reaches a level associated with tops, but this is not reflected in the cumulative Arms index.

Relative Strength reaches levels associated with tops, and the Vix moves up with the market – usually a contrary indication but this may be due to Vix Futures expiration tomorrow.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

I've come back for you…
to remind you of something. Something you once knew…
That this world is not real.
To convince me to honor our arrangement.
To take a leap of faith, yes. Come back…
so we can be young men together again.
Come back with me…

Inception, 2010, Dir. Christopher Nolan

As I suspected over the last few days, the renewed strength of the Bull market and the recent behaviour of the T volume oscillator is suggesting that the series of recent shallow lows has formed the new 'Cluster T Structure' marked in blue. The positioning of this T structure is provisionally placed at 19 January.
This provides for a series of highs in mid February in line with the original Large 'Trump' T structure, but also projecting into mid and late March in line with the cycle highs marked in pink and green.

Of course, as you can see, we find ourselves at an important rising line projected from previous highs, and so it wouldn't be surprising to see some consolidation as this level similar to recent passages. However, the additional strength I am observing here seems to be suggesting a break upwards through this line and targets 2350-2400, perhaps quickly.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

I was blind, now I can see…
you made a believer out of me…
I'm moving on up now, getting out of the darkness…
My light shines on, my light shines on, my light shines on…

Primal Scream, Moving on Up, 1991

Moving on up and breaking out again.

Of course, this might be a top, and we do have an arm of the T structure projecting to February 8 (and the previous major arm was 1 or 2 days late), so we could also certainly expect to see a peak hereabouts.

BUT we are also potentially seeing a re-emergence of the bullish strength that lifted the market up from November, and I am seeing another cash-build up ready to be used, and I am seeing momentum to the upside increasing.

I think that yesterday may have been an important break proving the Bulls' aggressive intentions and we might be looking at a runaway breakaway situation into a blow off top.

The T volume oscillator is close to breaking a large cash build up line.

We watch the oscillators for clues and price is the leading indicator.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

 

 

Another strong bounce off the rising gann line from the New Years Eve low and continuing to test the descending resistance from the recent all time highs (at 2294-97).

We will have to break one of these lines soon, perhaps a probe higher to 2315, or a drop down to take a look-see at the 55 Ema, currently at 2253.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, more clarity and explanations, larger images and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and Explanatory Notes.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Grind away continues with another rejection at 2300, as the market continues to try to creep higher, in what is becoming a familiar re-test of each significant peak. And re-inforces the current descending resistance line.

A significant break of the range will bring in additional buyers or sellers, but in the meantime we need to remain patient.

Possible turn today/tomorrow with another major arm of the T structure expiring.

Price is still 'on a Buy Signal' but the T volume oscillator refuses to confirm any strength, yet.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, more clarity and explanations, larger images and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and Explanatory Notes.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.