dont fight the fed
Oops – if in doubt press the sell button! So the news is in and maybe that's all we needed.
Not quite a Sell signal so we will need to watch the action over the next few days to find out which way is the one of least resistance. Nice bounce off the previous support line at 1. so we should respect that for today.
Caution required
It does look like we are heading back to new highs for a re-test of 1883, perhaps the upper trend line (5) and target for March 27 (small MOB)
Diagonal resistance line 4. appears to be taken out
Keep an eye on line 1. which we broke thru and then recovered. A second break of this line should signal a move down to line 2.
The oscillator makes a late sell signal, suggesting weakness in this recent move and this needs to be resolved either way.
S&P500 intraday LONG Signal at 1866
With the move above 1866 a Buy signal is occurring. Be prepared for a whipsaw back to the short side in the next few days. Stop and reverse position below 1851.5. The oscillator is starting to give a sell warning signal indicating weakness – I will hold the earlier L/T short position from March 12 as a hedge.
Cancelling the S/T Sell signal registers a loss of 24 points
tiptoeing on the line
1859
Flatlining most of the day around 1859 – admittedly close to today's 1860 Buy signal level – but really needs to see a strong close 1862+ to commit to the Buy signal.
1. The oscillator will most likely make a sell signal tomorrow
2. Diagonal resistance at 1872 today, 1870 tomorrow needs to be cleared
Mixed signals, understandable given the perceived risk to global markets.
Falling Knives
Beware the Ides of March
A strong sell signal yesterday creating quite a negative picture. I had expected a few more days of congestion in the 1870-1880 area, so my pre-market call yesterday after the recovery on wednesday was way off.
Unless we see a rapid recovery from here – a move above 1867 is a Buy signal – then we are now set up for a move down to 1810 or even 1775 towards the end of March as indicated by the MOB.
Tomorrow is the Ides of March – watch out for falling knives.
S&P500 Short Signal at 1842
A little late in the day and will quite probably bounce tomorrow but we hit a SHORT ONLY SIGNAL with the penetration below 1843. A move back above 1867 tomorrow will reverse the signal.
Nearly a short signal at 1846
Very close to an intraday Sell signal with the move down to 1845. Watch for a bounce from line 1. Otherwise a short only signal if penetrates 1843, and if we don't recover above 1848 by the close.





