crapshoot ?

Mixed signals. Wait for the oscillator to confirm the move, and/or wait for a closing price above or below the current congestion.

The upside would appear to be rather limited, and so I am inclined to favour the downside. However recent action is a reminder of how bullish the market is/has been.

The recent increase in daily volatility since beginning of 2014 is also suggesting that I will need to increase the intraday stops for the signals, hence 2 recent sell signals at the low of the day.

Chart of the S&P500 for March 26 2014

large move ahead

We did see a recovery of sorts so that the market is sitting right at the sell line. Frustrating indeed.

We are setting up for a large move, so we need to watch the oscillator now. If it recovers and moves above the upper black band then the large move may well be up. But at the moment the signals are sideways to downwards.

Chart of S&P500 for March 25th 2014