Trading the Line

Ides of March

Soothsayer. Caesar!
Caesar. Ha! who calls?
Casca. Bid every noise be still: peace yet again!
Caesar. Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue, shriller than all the music,
Cry 'Caesar!' Speak; Caesar is turn'd to hear.
Soothsayer. Beware the ides of March.
Caesar. What man is that?
Brutus. A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.

– William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Julius Caesar, Act I, Scene 2

Another probe into the Mid-channel, and teasing with a 'cover signal'.
Weak Buy Signal still active but no follow thru yet, as we wait for the Fed's decision and commentary. Hedge accordingly.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton March 15, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Transcendence

The most beautiful experience we can have is the mysterious.
It is the fundamental emotion that stands at the cradle of true art and true science.

– Albert Einstein, The World As I See It, 1930

Another one of those days when you could have been excused for not coming into work early.
Still trading mostly above the averages and gently pushing upwards into the close.

Steve Rushton March 13, 2017No Comments

FREE REPORTS

The Power of T Theory

As mentioned in my last report, prior to the much anticipated 28 February peak at the end of the Large gray T structure, there was some doubt as to whether the Cluster T structures that had emerged during the final stages of the large gray T structure would have any effect upon extending the gray structure into March and April.

This was due to the ominous drop in the T volume oscillator just prior to the end-date which in-effect was cancelling out the extensions of the Cluster T structures and bringing them into doubt.

It is now clear that we did indeed make a final and dramatic peak in-line with the end of the Large gray T stucture centred around the per-election low. The market used every day of that projection in its search for new highs and a distinct lack of buying power and market breadth has been noted since the pop on the 1 of March.

The one day margin of error was previously noted on the 25th January and takes into account the fact that the T volume oscillator turned 2 days prior to price at the low. This is indeed a powerful example of T Theory's accuracy in projecting highs from major lows in the market.

The recent descent from the highs towards 2350, has been gentle and orderly without any real panic and Friday's reaction to the strong employment report did, at least initially, trigger a short term Buy signal and there is a short line of cash-build up and the possibility of a small T which if confirmed during the next days would project highs towards the end of the month. This will be confirmed IF the T volume oscillator continues upwards and cuts the descending cash-build up line from the oscillator's recent highs.

As you can see there is also a longer line of cash-build up going back to the oscillator's peak at 72 on the 15 November and when the oscillator does cut this line (probably after a significant low yet to be seen) we will be able to declare another large T structure.

We watch the oscillator for clues, but we use price as the leading indicator.

Be prepared for what is coming next.

For more detailed ongoing analysis of the developments in the S&P500 index on a daily basis, please Sign up for daily Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and Explanatory Notes.

Steve Rushton March 12, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

S/T Buy Signal at 2375, but…

An S/T BUY Signal triggered in early trade at 2375, but weakened by the pop and drop at the descending resistance line, followed by a Buy it back push into the close. Also characteristic chopshop behaviour that seems to occur when the market is within the mid-channel area.

A clean exit from the short term descending trend would have been more favorable to the buy signal, and the T volume oscillator requires further follow through to establish the new small possible T structure.

Steve Rushton March 11, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Gap up into Buy Signal

Futures indicating a Gap up into the descending resistance and Buy Signal area, suggesting that the possible small T mentioned is good for a move back up towards the all-time highs.

Of course failure at the descending resistance, about 2372 would bring that back into doubt.

Steve Rushton March 10, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Mid-Channel dagger

A bullish rejection from the mid-channel area potentially setting up the possibility of a small T if yesterday turns out to be a low.

Momentum slowing and an OSC Oscillator Sell Signal will occur today.
Osc signals are a lagging momentum indicator and suggest that it is unlikely that we will see significantly higher new highs if we do rally.

I have drawn in the possible new T which will not be activated unless we actually get a Buy Signal and note that it does syncronise with the scheduled upcoming pulse and echo cycle highs.

Keep an eye on the T volume oscillator for signs of life, and allow price to be the leading indicator for commitment.

Steve Rushton March 10, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Waiting for signs of life

Market continues the gentle slide lower which is indicative of the lack of buying power at the end of a large T structure.
And we now enter a Warning Phase.

We are now quite oversold and a short term bounce could occur soon with several indicators now flashing 'oversold'.
A cross above the diagonal descending resistance line from the all time high would be a good confirmation.

As we wait for a signal, today's test will be to see if the rising line from the February 8 push upwards holds or not.
And keep an eye on the T volume oscillator for signs of life.

NYMO and short-term RSI at, or near to, levels associated with lows…

Steve Rushton March 9, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Provenance

Price fails to hold up above the Buy signal and a Cover Signal is confirmed.
Price will need to prove itself again, before we confirm a new Buy Signal.

The T volume oscillator makes a significant move down below -50, indicating that we are now looking for a low to be confirmed, before the next wave of buying occurs.

There is strong rising support ascending from the February 8 move upwards, and otherwise there is the long term trend line from the previous peaks which was previous resistance and now may become a support line.

It is now clear that the March 1 peak at 2400 was indeed the end of a major T structure and that the 'Cluster T structures' also completed at the same time. We may see some small effects from those projections, but we are now really looking to see a new structure emerge.

Steve Rushton March 8, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Cover Signal at 2372

Market drops below the Buy Signal level and fails to recover by end of day.
We wait for the next signal.

Steve Rushton March 7, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Gap-fill

Market continues to retrace its steps and filled the open gap at 2369-2375 with a bounce off the long term projection from the February 2015 high (a major turn).

Price remains above the Buy Signal level for the time-being, but the risks seem higher with the continued drop in the T volume oscillator and the Osc oscillator also now indicating a slowing of the momentum.

Perhaps not yet, but at some point we should see another 'attempt' at the highs in-line with the next series of scheduled highs which are mid March and late March.

The Cluster T structures also point to peaks at those times but the T volume oscillator is not currently confirming any further strength in those structures, and this is suggesting that there is a low to be confirmed first.

Steve Rushton March 7, 2017No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 30 July

...

S/T SELL Signal active below 7462 st 7440 on 26 July

COVER Signal below 7522 at 7440 on 17 July

S/T BUY Signal at 7398 on 29 June

S/T SELL Signal active below 7344 on 26 June

COVER Short Signal above 7361 on 25 June

S/T SELL Signal below 7422 on 23 June

COVER Signal below 7452 at 7365 on 23 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7500 on 18 June

COVER Short Signal at 7500 on 18 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7424 on 17 June

COVER Signal at 7454 on 17 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7404 on 11 June

COVER Short Signal at 7337 on 10 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7462 on 05 June

COVER Signal at 7553 on 05 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7586 on 04 June

COVER Signal at 7554 on 03 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 20 May

COVER Signal at 7411 on 15 May

S/T BUY Signal at 6457 on 31 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6398 on 31 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6543 on 26 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6600 at 6620 on 25 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6567 on 25 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Signal at 6590 on 23 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6623 on 23 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6563 at 6600 on 23 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6666 on 18 Mar

COVER Signal at 6693 on 18 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6729 on 16 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6668 at 6698 on 16 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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With new commentary and Insights on the life and times of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous financial speculator of all time–Jesse Livermore. This annotated edition bridges the gap between Edwin Lefevre′s fictionalized account of Livermore′s life and the actual, historical events, places, and people that populate the book. It also describes the variety of trading approaches Livermore used throughout his life and analyzes his psychological development as a trader and the lessons gained through hard experiences.

“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

“There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.”
The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt