Trading the Line

Monkey’s Paw

A strong rally off the lows but fails at the 2375 level.

If the low holds then we have a small T with possible strength into early June and the next scheduled echo high.
However the short signal is still active and further 'stabilisation' or downside may be required.

Interestingly the market closed right on the 55 ema – direction uncertain.

A move up through 2375 would obviously be important, as would a break down lower than yesterday's low at 2352.

SKEW moves up indicating the prescence of possible further event risk in Trump town.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton May 19, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Worms

A dramatic gap down to the Sell Signal level and a short signal triggered in early trade.
A late morning bounce failed at lunchtime and selling resumed.

Potential support lies just below on a rising line from the Election low, but with such a strong sell signal we might expect to see some stabilisation before the next bullish move.

We should now consider the current T structures complete, although we may see some echoes from the secondary structure, and we should be looking for a new low to form and to set up the next large T structure.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton May 18, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

ST Sell Signal at 2380

Today's failure to bounce at 2380 triggers a short-term SELL signal, confirmed by the move lower through 2375.

Steve Rushton May 17, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Cover Signal below SPX 2392

Pre-market:

Heavy selling overnight will place the market below the cover signal level and within easy reach of the ST Sell Signal level.

Yes, a short-term bounce may occur especially at 2380 – the site of recent bounces – but the fact that this is occuring during the endgame of the red T structure is strongly suggesting that we take a short signal, if it occurs, seriously.

Steve Rushton May 17, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Buttonwood

Market still struggling to hold onto gains above 2400, but finding some support at the long term rising line.

Still standing at the crossroads…

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton May 17, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Mercury rising

When the child was a child,
It was the time for these questions:
Why am I me, and why not you?
Why am I here, and why not there?
When did time begin, and where does space end?
Is life under the sun not just a dream?
Is what I see and hear and smell
not just an illusion of a world before the world?
Given the facts of evil and people.
does evil really exist?
How can it be that I, who I am,
didn’t exist before I came to be,
and that, someday, I, who I am,
will no longer be who I am?

Peter Handke, Songs of Childhood, from the film: 'Wings of Desire', Dir: Wim Wenders (1987)

Mercury – the god of finance – does his thing, and lifts the market back to all time highs, indicating that the T structures are very much alive and that Friday was most likely an echo low associated with the secondary DB (double bottom) structure.

Further strength is to be expected but be aware that this is potentially moving into the endgame of the red 'amalgamation' DB T structure, and that the endgame of a T structure is often a strong push up followed by a distinct lack of buying power.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton May 16, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Mercuralia

Market moves into a Warning phase but contained its drift lower, and just held above the Buy Signal line into the close.

T volume oscillator turns negative and the Osc oscillator looks close to a sell signal, indicative of the slowing momentum.

Starting to build a descending resistance line, and reinforcing the apparent double top, for now.

The prescence of a short term peak at the significant arm of the Amalgamation DB (Double Bottom) T structure leads me to believe that it is the Primary Structure and that the T structure drawn at the 13 April low is now secondary and projects echo lows rather than highs.

This means that we should see a significant lack of buying power at the end of the Amalgamation DB structure which only projects as far as 18 and 23 May. I believe that we will then be looking for a new low or series of lows to define a new T structure.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton May 14, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

La Calzada

A successful test of the previous 2 lows at 2381 and also the 21 ema, and the market recovers back within the S/T channel and holds onto the Buy Signal, for now. But some damage has been done.

The next negociation is the arm of the new T structure from the 16 March high to the 13 April low which projects to today.

Yesterday's break lower from the rising support line confirms the 09 May high in-line with the red Amalgamation T structure, and there is now a potential descending resistance line from that high.

We need to see a close above 2400 to change the outlook.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton May 12, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Cover Signal at 2390

Pre-market:

Overnight markets have not held onto yesterday's gains and are possibly looking to test the previous 2 days' lows in early trade.

This could be a critical test because we are starting to see a challenge of the important rising line from the 13 April low at the same time as the expiry of the major arm of the red amalgamation T structure, as well as the possibility of failure at a double top.

Failure here would lead me to assume that the the red amalgamation T structure – a double bottom structure – is more dominant than the later T structure from the most recent low, and this could present significant difficulties moving forward, especially at the point where strength is required to break out above 2400.

If that becomes the case it may also be necessary to re-draw the later T structure as it could be projecting echo lows rather than highs.

—

Recovery today if it occurs will change that outlook

Steve Rushton May 11, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Deep Blue

Deep Blue was a chess-playing computer developed by IBM. It is known for being the first computer chess-playing system to win both a chess game and a chess match against a reigning world champion under regular time controls.

Market continues to hold onto the rising line from the recent low, and the oscillators improve suggesting continued strength into the next projected peak.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton May 11, 2017No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

“There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.”
The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt