Trading the Line

Bagradas

No follow through, yet. A re-test of the 55 ema and still on a Buy Signal, just.

The Warning phase moves up to a Short Alert, but curiously the T volume oscillator continues higher – some strength behind the new small T? Maybe.

Still looking for an attempt on the declining resistance, but another break lower remains a distinct possibility.
Be prepared and Hedge accordingly.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton August 24, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Vulcanalia

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery–isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”

Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

A strong upward thrust through the important 55 ema and a gap up and go day which closed near the high of the day.

A strong Buy Signal and the forming of a new small T structure which IF the low holds projects strength into late August and also into September.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton August 23, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

S/T Buy Signal at 2444

The market is in fine form again today and back at the important 55 ema at 2444.

As you know this is an important level and failure here would be continuation Sell Signal.

A close above 2444 is an S/T Buy Signal, with an expectation of an attempt on the descending resistance of the declining channel.

Steve Rushton August 22, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Bosworth

The market tests the downside but holds firm above the recent low with some signs of stabilisation apparent.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton August 22, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Eclipse

An attempt to recover the 55 ema stalls and the selling resumes into the week's close.

A visit to the lower reaches of the channel seems more and more likely as the market starts to stair-step downwards.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton August 20, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Gravelotte

Another Sell Signal at an Echo high after a short-lived Buy Signal, after another kiss good-bye, and a significant drop below the 55 ema as the market starts to define a descending channel.

Again, look for stabilisation in price and oscillators before the next advance, as the market looks to build a platform for the next large T structure.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton August 18, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S/T Sell Signal at 2457

The Echo high provides a little fuel and confirms my suspicions that we saw a kiss good-bye of an important rising trend line yesterday.

Further failure at the 55 ema cancels the possible new T at last week's low and brings the possibility of a visit to the lower reaches of the channel as we look for a larger structure to form in the days or weeks to come.

Steve Rushton August 17, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Verneuil

An attempt to move higher is rejected at 2475 as the market finds declining resistance from the recent highs and meets the important rising line from the Election low – a kiss good-bye perhaps?

Still above the Buy Signal line but today is an Echo high which could add some fuel to any further selling.

Some improvements in the oscillators but not yet out of the woods.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton August 17, 2017No Comments

FREE REPORTS

Trump vs Kim

There are two problems for our species' survival – nuclear war and environmental catastrophe – and we're hurtling towards them. Knowingly.

– Noam Chomsky

Time for an update on the S&P 500.

In my last report I posed the question – was it time to rollover and die, or was it time for a summer rally? The answer came quickly and on 12 July the market gapped up above descending resistance on a clear Buy signal.

A good summer rally was had, and after several momentum and breadth warnings we had the exhaustion move to 2492 on the 8 August. I had been warning my readers of an expected peak in the early August timeframe but then someone mentioned missiles and we had the quick panic selloff last week.

As you can see several of the recent T structures pointed to a possible August peak including the very large Double Bottom structure centred inbetween the 2 major lows of early 2016. (Top in purple)

The panic took the market straight down to the important 55 day exponential moving average, and this is an important inflection point and has been the site of many important recent lows.

The subsequent bounce has made a small T which looks to be confirmed today and projects a high in late August.

Interestingly the 2nd low of the large Double Bottom T structure projects a series of Echo lows (marked in pale blue) and, if correct, this suggests another important low coming up also in the late August timeframe.

The weekly chart above shows the full potential range of the long range Double Bottom structure of early 2016. It now looks nearly complete. As you can see the market has been tackling the long term resistance lines that I have drawn from the March and September 2000 tops. I believe that because the market has moved upwards through these lines it has set up a significant move higher. I suspect that it may be similar to the June 2014 breakthrough, which wasn't straight up but followed a process of re-testing the previous significant low and building a platform. Perhaps 2350 and/or 2320-30 will become significant at future lows prior to the next major advance?

In the meantime it looks like the next important peak will be in the week of 25 August, with perhaps another significant peak in the week of 22 September. How much of a pullback is required first, and whether to expect higher or lower highs is unclear, and is dependent upon what happens next.

Beyond this it seems likely that we will need to see some type of corrective action that should set up another large T structure. Notice the momentum slowing on the oscillator has previously led to some significant corrections.

Perhaps Trump vs Kim after all.

Be prepared for what is coming next:

For more detailed ongoing analysis of the developments in the S&P500 index on a daily basis, as well as my personal Buy and Sell Signal trigger levels, please Sign up for daily Alerts & Observations. This includes access to the Members Area for an archive of all of my alerts and updates and my Explanatory Notes pdf which gives detailed explanations on all of the concepts being discussed.

Steve Rushton August 16, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Peterloo

Still on a Buy Signal, but finding some resistance at the declining angle from the recent highs.

The final arm of the Large T structure centred at the 17 May low expires, and this could produce another wave of selling.

IF not we have a small T which isn't confirmed by the oscillator (yet) but projects highs next week and/or prior to the labor day holiday.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton August 16, 2017No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 30 July

...

S/T SELL Signal active below 7462 st 7440 on 26 July

COVER Signal below 7522 at 7440 on 17 July

S/T BUY Signal at 7398 on 29 June

S/T SELL Signal active below 7344 on 26 June

COVER Short Signal above 7361 on 25 June

S/T SELL Signal below 7422 on 23 June

COVER Signal below 7452 at 7365 on 23 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7500 on 18 June

COVER Short Signal at 7500 on 18 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7424 on 17 June

COVER Signal at 7454 on 17 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7404 on 11 June

COVER Short Signal at 7337 on 10 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7462 on 05 June

COVER Signal at 7553 on 05 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7586 on 04 June

COVER Signal at 7554 on 03 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 20 May

COVER Signal at 7411 on 15 May

S/T BUY Signal at 6457 on 31 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6398 on 31 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6543 on 26 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6600 at 6620 on 25 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6567 on 25 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Signal at 6590 on 23 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6623 on 23 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6563 at 6600 on 23 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6666 on 18 Mar

COVER Signal at 6693 on 18 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6729 on 16 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6668 at 6698 on 16 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: Annotated Edition

by Jon D. Markman

With new commentary and Insights on the life and times of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous financial speculator of all time–Jesse Livermore. This annotated edition bridges the gap between Edwin Lefevre′s fictionalized account of Livermore′s life and the actual, historical events, places, and people that populate the book. It also describes the variety of trading approaches Livermore used throughout his life and analyzes his psychological development as a trader and the lessons gained through hard experiences.

“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

“There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.”
The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt