One small step for (a) man

…one giant leap for mankind

Neil Armstrong, 20 July 1969

Well hear we are at the top of the channel, looking a bit toppy, and everyone wondering if we go up or down now.
…and no Fear, the Vix just dropped below 12. Hmmm.

Chart of S&P500 for 20 July 2016

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational & entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

 

Grind baby grind

Maybe friday was all the pause we needed as traders re-positioned for August.
Now looking for a continued grind into mid August and round numbers above us.

Chart of S&P500 for 19 July 2016

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational & entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

 

Channel topping and grind

2170 is kinda the top of the channel, and rising gradually.
Although its is entirely possible that mr market proceed upwards, gains from here will probably be a slow grind and at some point we will pullback towards the centre of the channel (the 55 ema) for a test, bounce or plunge down to the lower edge of the channel.

Chart of S&P500 for 18 July 2016

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational & entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

 

July expiration

Expect usual expiration day shenanigans as traders re-position for the next month and mr market pins at the best possible price.

We are at or close to a peak and a clear target above. Measured move just about done.

Chart of S&P500 for 15 July 2016

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational & entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

 

Bastille

Joyeux Quatorze Juillet

Time for a pause, waiting for expiration and ready for a pullback.

Today/tomorrow we are at the end of the first arm of the T structure suggesting that we are probably at the end of this initial strong push higher.
It would be logical to see a pullback to the breakout level and determine whether resistance can now become support.

Chart of S&P500 for 14 July 2016

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational & entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

 

This train stops for no-one

Yet we are all aboard…

(Words from THIS TRAIN by David Lynch, John Neff and Chrysta Bell)

At the top of my gray channel and at the upper bollinger band

Like a runaway train and looks like a measured move similar to late February…

Chart of S&P500 for 13 July 2016

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

 

Hooray for new highs

Short term target acheived, now it gets interesting.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

 

Movin on up…

A strong push higher that activates the longer arms of this T structure pointing to late August highs.

Significant resistance indicated by the MOB lurking just above in the 2140-2150 area just above at all time highs, and so this is presumably the current target, with 2180 – 2200 the longer-term target above that.

Chart of S&P500 for 11 July 2016

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

 

Smells like contagion

Smells like contagion with Italian banks in trouble, and treasury bonds going parabolic.
Maybe the market wont focus on it just yet but its out there.

Still climbing the wall of worry.

Chart of S&P500 for 8 July 2016

 

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

 

Push into green

Market played with the idea of going down, but found significant support in the 2070s.
Looks like green light for next push upwards.

Chart of S&P500 for 7 July 2016

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.