S&P500 daily update

A little 'profit-taking' after the strength last week, and found support at the mid-point.
Held well above the stop line. Nothing out of the orderinary there.

On the negative side, the blue ellipse indicates that the bounce from the low has been contained, further weakness may suggest a re-test of the recent low and/or the rising angle from it.

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Everything looking good, tho we may need a small pullback here after the big push up from the recent low, and it also coincides with a minor high indicated.

Continued strength above the mid-channel and gann angle should project this higher into a mid July high.

A very happy Independence Day everyone.

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Certainly looks like a new T structure has been formed with the Brexit low, and a projection of new all time highs for a summer rally.

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Nice short-covering rally as to be expected by the high Arms reading Friday
(over 2 – maybe one more day of selling, then a rally)

Back above the 200MA, which is good too.

All good, but we have a very short arm on the T structure
And an ultra high reading on Skew

Be prepared for another big move… down

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The Battle for 2000 starts and a Bear market warning occurs as the market punches effortlessly through the 200 simple moving average at 2021. The 200 MA is a benchmark Bull/Bear line in the sand.

We may try to rally here, but the Target now looks even like more likely to be 1935-40, corresponding neatly with the early February high.

With such a fast and violent move it will take some time to stabilise, and this also has an adverse affect upon the signals being generated by price alone.

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Expect some volatile days ahead as the brexit shockwave is processed into the marketplace.
There may well be a hangover caused by the currency crash.

Short-term bounce is likely due to the high Arms reading (2.06), but we are likely to test 2000 either before or after the first bounce.

It may take a few weeks to establish a new low and 25th July looks like a target date for that at present.

OK so we now know the news.

But firstly, yesterday the market was confident of a remain vote and the chart is suggesting that the move today would end in a turn either at 2140 on the upside or at 2000 on the downside, note the black markers on the MOB's.

Interestingly, a small price T structure of the recent move says its done. Note the extremely high Skew showing that the market was prepping for a wobbley (that of course wouln't have happened if the vote went the other way.)

So now we are looking for the low, Futures traded somewhere near 2000 after the vote announcement in early UK trading, and have recovered somewhat since then. That shows significant support at 2000 so keep an eye there if we continue the selling in the next days.

Volatility should remain high for the short term, and the battle of the 200 day MA resumes.

Another 'failure' to move beyond 2100 as we wait for the Brexit vote.
Notice that the bollingers are squeezing tight, indication that an outsized move is in preparation.
I suspect we may see a quick move in one direction followed by its reversal.
A fake out shake out.
Still on a BUY with a tight stop, keep a close eye on the rising Gann support line.