S&P500 daily update

Après moi le déluge
(Louis XV of France / RAF 617 Squadron Dambuster's motto)

A ferocious sell-off down into a hole at 2406 which just happens to be the 55 day ema and site of a long term rising Gann line form the Election low – an important test for the whole Trump rally.

This also marks a structural centre to the current rising trend and is right on a line which rises from the February 2015 highs.

Interestingly, yesterday is exactly in-line with the 5 April spike high and reverse day and is almost certainly in my mind an echo of that occurrence. This in turn reinforces the projections of the 'New T Structure' and we should therefore assume that the upcoming arms of the T will also be peaks at those times (not necessarily higher peaks).

As the market has clearly expanded its range and volatility, we should expect this to continue for a while, especially considering the upcoming cluster of Echo and Pulse highs that are projected for the next week or so.

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"Forget about it" is, like, if you agree with someone, you know, like "Raquel Welch is one great piece of ass. Forget about it!" But then, if you disagree, like "A Lincoln is better than a Cadillac? Forget about it!" You know? But then, it's also like if something's the greatest thing in the world, like, "Minghia! Those peppers! Forget about it!" But it's also like saying "Go to hell!" too. Like, you know, like "Hey Paulie, you got a one-inch pecker?" and Paulie says "Forget about it!" Sometimes it just means "Forget about it."

– Donnie Brasco, 1997, Dir: Mike Newell

A snap-back short covering rally as the market breezes back up through the Buy Signal level.

Could be a small price T projecting into early July (if Tuesday's low is left behind us).

Still in the descending resistance zone and still within the recent range, and the current squeeze getting tighter.

Cluster of highs ahead suggesting further heavy choppiness.

T volume oscillator moves significantly higher indicating broad strength and breadth and support for the current T structure.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

The market drops below the mid-channel support area and makes a Short signal at 2428.

Surprisingly, the T volume oscillator is still above zero.

Unless we get a rapid recovery (which is always a possibility), it looks like we will see some testing of the various strong support lines, and we will look for a new low to form a new T structure, which may still complement the possible gray extensions of the current T structure, unless the 17 May low is exceeded.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Another attempt at 2450 is rejected in early trade.

Conflicting signals – the T volume oscillator rises and confirms the prescence of a new small T and/or the extensions of the larger T structures into July, but the OSc oscillator is falling again due to the lack of momentum suggesting that any advance will be limited.

The squeeze tightens and we can expect more erratic choppiness.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

“Rats
They fought the dogs and killed the cats,
And bit the babies in the cradles,
And ate the cheeses out of the vats,
And licked the soup from the cook's own ladles.
Split open the kegs of salted sprats,
Made nests inside men's Sunday hats,
And even spoiled the women's chats
By drowning their speaking
With shrieking and squeaking
In fifty different sharps and flats.”

– Robert Browning, The Pied Piper of Hamelin, 1842

The market holds up above the Buy Signal line into Friday's close.

An improvement in the oscillators, but the descending resistance line from the high is still active.

An apparent tight squeeze in preparation.

 

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

The festivals of St. John's Eve have roots in ancient celebrations related to the summer solstice.
Bonfires are lit to protect against evil spirits which were believed to roam freely when the sun was turning southward again.
[Wikipedia]

Market still in the process of stabilisation, and holding onto the Buy Signal line, for now.

Watch the descending resistance line for signs of a re-attempt at the highs.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

“If I'm not for myself, who will be for me?
If not this way, how? If not now, when?”

– Primo Levi, If Not Now, When?, 1982

The echo and pulse high on 19 June still in effect, and the significant drop in the T volume oscillator now brings the current T structure into doubt. It has also come to my attention that there has also been a correction in the breadth data for the 13 June which means that the full extensions of this T structure are not actually confirmed beyond the red sections.

And so the pop up to 2453 may just have been a Midsummer night's dream.

The market is still holding onto 'support' and still above the Buy Signal level, and so we can still consider this to be just a retracement of that move and that the market is back in a range demarcated by the recent highs and lows.

However, price is making a Warning and much further weakness could bring significant selling accompanied by a Sell signal in which case we would look for a new T structure to emerge from another significant low.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

“Are you sure / That we are awake? It seems to me / That yet we sleep, we dream”

– William Shakespeare, A Midsummer Night's Dream, 1595-6

Markets respond to the scheduled echo and pulse highs with a swift day of relentless profit-taking, bringing price back down towards the cover signal level and potentially strong support levels.

Admittedly, rather a negative development which has the potential to leave 2453 as a peak for a while and explore the downside. We should therefore monitor developments carefully and be prepared to wait.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Market continues its determined search for higher prices with a solid gap and go and close at the high day.

T volume oscillator back above zero and and the OSc oscillator improves, looks to cancel the momentum 'sell signal' unless the market retraces significantly.

The next negotiation is the Echo high and Pulse high scheduled for yesterday which could cause a speed bump or retracement of yesterday's move, but still, it does look like the New Large T Structure drawn at the most recent low is going to power the market to the upper reaches of the channel, perhaps sooner than later.

 

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

“But what a feeling can come over a man just from seeing the things he believes in and hopes for symbolized in the concrete form of a man. In something that gives a focus to all the other things he knows to be real. Something that makes unseen things manifest and allows him to come to his hopes and dreams through his outer eye and through the touch and feel of his natural hand.”

– Ralph Ellison, Juneteenth, 1999

Market still range-bound and although early trade was below the cover signal level, it bounced back again to hold onto the Buy Signal level into the close.

An echo and pulse high scheduled for Monday 19 June could present another high.

IF the 'possible new large T structure' is correct then we could expect to see the market continue to grind away defending the highs and preparing for new advances.

IF not, and the 'small price T at the recent spike low' was just an extension of the previous DB T structure, we should see a more significant correction.

At the moment price is hinting at the first option, whilst the oscillators are hinting at the second.

 

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.