S&P500 daily update

Tombstone

You think you're pretty tough, don't ya, son?
I never knew a gunslinger yet so tough he lived to celebrate his 35th birthday.
I learned one rule about gunslingers.
There's always a man faster on the draw than you are,
and the more you use a gun, the sooner you're gonna run into that man.

Gunfight at the O.K. Corral, 1957
Dir. John Sturges

–

An echo high. The market rallies strongly from a deep low into an afternoon high. Recent characteristic late day selling at 2720 as the market continues to sell into strength.

The selling resumes overnight.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton October 26, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Saint Crispin

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.

William Shakespeare, Henry V, c. 1600

–

Blood in the street as the market makes a heavy plunge below 2700 to settle below the lower extreme for the first time since 2016.

Are we there yet? Well, maybe… but we will need to see significant stabilisation in price and in the oscillators to be convinced.

Relatively high ARMs and Put / Call ratios, but the VIX remains at levels that do not convey the drama of a 3% decline. Hmm still smelling a rat.

Watch to see if we have some kind of recovery followed by, more of the same.

And today is an echo high, after which we could expect… more selling.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton October 25, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Market closing at 2656

The market continues lower after yesterday's rally with an S/T Sell Signal still active below 2755.

In my pre-market notes I warned of significant downside risk.

For a number of personal reasons I did not issue a specific short entry point today but I did note that the selling was becoming more serious below 2720

The market tried very hard to hold onto the 2700 level but the heavy volatility continued and the last bounce off 2690 collapsed into the close.

Although some bearish targets have now been acheived, the market is now entering levels associated with some kind of potential crash and we should consider this to be a Bear Market for now.

Steve Rushton October 25, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Charter

Market opens down huge, breaks lower, tests the lower extreme and initiates a very strong counter trend rally.

IF yesterday's low holds then we have a second low with bullish divergence and a new possible T structure centered on that low. We need to see some follow through above yesterday's high.

IF yesterday was just a reaction to the severely negative opening and the selling continues today (and Futures are indicating that this is likely), then we are still looking for a major low and price will continue lower until the current problem with price is no longer apparent.

Very dangerous market conditions continue. Trade below the 200 day moving average indicates, for now, that the volatility will continue and that we should trade accordingly.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton October 24, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Edge Hill

An S/T Sell Signal at 2774 in early trade sees the market down at 2750 before a strong bounce at 'rising support' and a choppy remainder of the day.

Strong bounce and no follow through – Cover at 2760.

An Osc Buy Signal reflecting the 'stabilisation' since the low last week but the severe downtrend remains in place with the market selling into any strength.

Bear Market Warning flashing again, and the weekly trend turns neutral.

The market is currently in trouble and should be treated with extreme caution.

Futures indicate a serious drop at the open and how the market responds will be revealing.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton October 22, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Fracture

On Friday, another attempted Buy Signal at 2794 fades quickly and the selling increases, triggering a Sell Signal at 2781. Cover at or prior to the close.

The market continues to be unstable, and bipolar, reversing rapidly and triangulating in the region of the 200 day moving average.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton October 22, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Sorrow

Sorrow found me when I was young,
Sorrow waited, sorrow won.
Sorrow that put me on the pills,
It's in my honey it's in my milk.
It's only about half a heart alone
On the water,
Cover me in rag and bones, sympathy.
'Cause I don't wanna get over you.
I don't wanna get over you.

The National, Sorrow, 2010
Songwriters: Aaron B. Dessner / Matthew D. Berninger

–

The market pulls back to the Buy Signal line at 2790 and makes an attempt to move above 2800.

Strong selling is initiated and the market drops through 2790 triggering a Cover Signal followed quickly by a Sell signal at 2775.

This exemplifies the character of the S/T channel which provided strong support until penetrated and then the market falls away quickly looking for a deeper support level – at the 200 day moving average again.

Yesterday's action also suggests that the current new T structure is more complex and will perhaps morph into a double or triple bottom in due course. This is why we do not simply rely upon projections but allow price action to inform us of what is likely happening next.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton October 19, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Lift you up

Oh, when I lift you up
You feel Like a hundred times yourself
I wish everybody knew
What's so great about you
(…)
Jenny, I am in trouble
Can't get these thoughts out of me
Jenny, I'm seeing double
I know this changes everything

The National, This is the Last Time, 2013
Songwriters: Aaron Brooking Dessner / Bryce David Dessner / Matthew D. Berninger

–

Profit-taking sees the market back at the Buy Signal level for another push at the important 2815 level. The market continues to be volatile and relatively dangerous with rapid reversals and still vulnerable to some strong selling.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton October 18, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Dominion

The market resolves to the upside with a strong opening at the 200 day moving average, and no looking back, and that, for now, removes the recent Bear Market Warning.

Price moves upwards through 2789 triggering an S/T BUY signal and strength continues into the close in a powerful short covering rally.

The T volume oscillator rises sharply and confirms the prescence of a new T structure centered at the recent low. The oscillator high on 21 September indicates that this structure is likely to be relatively small, and/or that there are further waves down ahead.

Of course, the market is now susceptible to a reaction downwards and may need to re-test the rising lines from the low at some point, as it did in February and March after similar impact lows.

The market is not yet out of the woods, but strength above 2820 would be seen as very positive.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton October 17, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Ether

Another choppy volatile day, as the stabilisation at the 200 day moving average continues with strong selling at the highs and into the close.

A dangerous market with a Sell Signal active.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton October 16, 2018No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal active below 7462 st 7440 on 17 July

COVER Signal below 7522 at 7440 on 17 July

S/T BUY Signal at 7398 on 29 June

S/T SELL Signal active below 7344 on 26 June

COVER Short Signal above 7361 on 25 June

S/T SELL Signal below 7422 on 23 June

COVER Signal below 7452 at 7365 on 23 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7500 on 18 June

COVER Short Signal at 7500 on 18 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7424 on 17 June

COVER Signal at 7454 on 17 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7404 on 11 June

COVER Short Signal at 7337 on 10 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7462 on 05 June

COVER Signal at 7553 on 05 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7586 on 04 June

COVER Signal at 7554 on 03 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 20 May

COVER Signal at 7411 on 15 May

S/T BUY Signal at 6457 on 31 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6398 on 31 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6543 on 26 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6600 at 6620 on 25 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6567 on 25 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Signal at 6590 on 23 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6623 on 23 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6563 at 6600 on 23 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6666 on 18 Mar

COVER Signal at 6693 on 18 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6729 on 16 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6668 at 6698 on 16 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

More Recommended

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: Annotated Edition

by Jon D. Markman

With new commentary and Insights on the life and times of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous financial speculator of all time–Jesse Livermore. This annotated edition bridges the gap between Edwin Lefevre′s fictionalized account of Livermore′s life and the actual, historical events, places, and people that populate the book. It also describes the variety of trading approaches Livermore used throughout his life and analyzes his psychological development as a trader and the lessons gained through hard experiences.

“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

“There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.”
The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt