consolidation

Held at the important 1994 level and oscillator strong but flat.
Looks like consolidation at the highs in preparation for a move upwards rather than an end to the move.

Above 1984 still looking good. I still favor a grind upwards to 2020-2025.

Chart of S&P500 for 3 September 2014

 

more russians

Survived the morning negativity and held above 1989. Was that all that is required to drive the market higher? Or the beginning of something more serious.Maybe just the effects of the 70 day pulse from May 15 and 20.

No reason to sell just yet – keep monitoring the oscillator for signs of further weakness.

Chart of S&P 500 for 29 August 2014

dog day afternoons

Gripping onto 2000, and looking like a much needed pause in the uptrend before…

I think – a push up into a momentum peak on September 10. Well we will see.

Any pullbacks here should be contained by 1988 and rising – next target 2020-2030.

Interesting note for the next major Low projected for mid-late October – the 1950 area is now the cross-position of 55EMA and 20MA and this provided strong support for the April Low and last October low.

Chart of S&P500 for 28 August 2014

and then it was 2000

So we reached 2000 at last, and the knee-jerk reaction is to sell and take some profits. And maybe that's right – it has been a scream from 1904 to 2000.

The T structure suggests that we are not finished yet. So until proven incorrect look for higher highs and watch the trailing support lines for any hint of weakness.

Next major peak should be 10 September at about 2020. (guess)

Chart of S&P500 for 26 August 2014

 

Jackson Hole

Which brings us to Jackson Hole.

The S&P in breakout mode, poised to take 2000 and not showing any particular reason to sell, other than being rather overbought (RSI 2 at 99.6 ) – not a great reason!

It seems like we are looking for a momentum top – perhaps a blow off – and I can perceive significantly higher prices from here. Buckle up Dorothy!

Chart of S&P500 for August 22, 2014