Trading the Line

An interesting recovery yesterday and really close to a 'Buy Signal' of sorts. The lack of strength indicated and the perceived congestion immediately above leads me to the Neutral position.

The ellipse projection seems to have held the down move for now, so lets see if we can get back above line 2. for a more sustained move or if we just crawl back up the underside (as with line 1.)

We can expect the shortened holiday week to be reasonably bullish moving into a 3 day weekend but discounting any geo-political risk.

Longer term projection is 1800 at line 3. May 5th.

A short term bounce should now be expected, at least to test the previous support area of 1840-45.

Advanced Get is indicating that it is unlikely for a re-test of the 1897 high in the near term due to the low PTI (below 35). This in turn suggests that we are setting up for a more long term down move – sell iin May and go away?

Having broken line 2, a test of line 3. should be on the cards soon.

Bounce at line 2 or fail and move down to line 3. ??

The ellipse indicator is also showing that we may be close to a bounce – maybe 1 or 2 more days. ugly.

A Buy signal occurred yesterday but because of the limited perceived upside, I will retain a neutral position.

Found some horizontal support for the bounce at 1838. Came perhaps close enough to line 2. to make me think that potential target acheived. watch line 2 to see if we can contain the downside and continue the sideways funk.

With the sharp move down the last 2 days the first major line of support (line 2.) comes into easy reach and I would expect to see some consolidation of the down move, a pause or even a bounce in this area. If we break that line then as with the line 1 break, then line 3 becomes the target.

The oscillator is showing weakness again and this is a reminder that when the oscillator is weak (but not oversold) that further weakness can be expected and not to trust any buy signals.