Trading the Line

Price has acheived its short-term target – GET wave 5 low PTI
Squeeze occurring
CCI sell signal – confirmation required
Oscillator recovered ? and potentially bullish – watch carefully next days to see if confirms the sell signal

Target for next low 1820 – end of May / first week of June

It looks like the recent up move may be over (or nearly over) and we are preparing for a large move as indicated by tightening of the bollinger bands

– double top acheived
– low PTI wave 5 in advanced get – probable double top
– close to end of recent short-term price momentum T structure
– vix at lower bollinger band indicating complacency and cheap put options

Keeping an open mind – wait to see if we get a signal from CCI etc.

Short term Buy Signal yesterday with the break upwards. Looks like a move to say 1915-1920. (19 May)

With the oscillator recovering, it is of course possible that this may be the beginning of an extended upwards move. Initially see if we can get thru the long-term resistance angles R1/R2 at 1930-1940.

If we don't sell off straight away then I expect to see a 2nd peak at around 1900 – 1915 between May 15 – 19 followed by a test of S3 around 1817. May option expiration could certainly keep the S&P's buoyant.

Mixed signals continue with the S&P struggling to maintain a Buy signal and the oscillator indicating weakness in general.

Recovered yet again from a potential sell signal at 1860, showing that we still have strong support at the 55 EMA and keeping line S4 active.
Not much happening – a waiting game to see if the trend change occurs here or perhaps we get a short burst upwards to complete the shape.

The oscillator signalling weakness again, so be on alert for a fast move down.

Failed support line S1 and now testing S4, again indicative of the weakness and topping structure.
S/T long position stopped out at 1874.

Will we see a last gasp move back up?

The sort-term time price symmetry structure seems to be playing out perfectly here, and if I'm correct we still need to see another wave up before this structure is done with the possible end date around the 19th.

However, the 65-70 day pulse is due to expire from now through May 14 and this may be enough to start a move down.

We seem to be tip-toeing along the 1880 level, presumably waiting for a catalyst to propel the market either up or down. I see limited upside (currently 1920-1930) but the potential for significant downside (re-test of 1810 or even lower – 1650?)

Expected turn dates are May 8 and May 19 from a short-term perspective. And so I would expect to shift the condor position into a short position on the 8th. Keep an open mind though.

Looking for a short term dip to occur the next few days followed by a possible attempt at the all-time high again 1896-97.

Based on time symmetry from the momentum peak on March 6-7 I would expect the next major turn point to occur by 20 May.

Not much to see here, move along now.

Expecting this sideways grind to continue, with a short term top within the next few days and a second one around May 20 – this would match up with the momentum peak at 6-7 March and the recent low of 14 April.

Perhaps after that we will get a scary drop, setting up the possibility of strong rallies into the fall.

Sell in May and Buy it back again.