Trading the Line

Waiting for signs of life

Market continues the gentle slide lower which is indicative of the lack of buying power at the end of a large T structure.
And we now enter a Warning Phase.

We are now quite oversold and a short term bounce could occur soon with several indicators now flashing 'oversold'.
A cross above the diagonal descending resistance line from the all time high would be a good confirmation.

As we wait for a signal, today's test will be to see if the rising line from the February 8 push upwards holds or not.
And keep an eye on the T volume oscillator for signs of life.

NYMO and short-term RSI at, or near to, levels associated with lows…

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton March 9, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Provenance

Price fails to hold up above the Buy signal and a Cover Signal is confirmed.
Price will need to prove itself again, before we confirm a new Buy Signal.

The T volume oscillator makes a significant move down below -50, indicating that we are now looking for a low to be confirmed, before the next wave of buying occurs.

There is strong rising support ascending from the February 8 move upwards, and otherwise there is the long term trend line from the previous peaks which was previous resistance and now may become a support line.

It is now clear that the March 1 peak at 2400 was indeed the end of a major T structure and that the 'Cluster T structures' also completed at the same time. We may see some small effects from those projections, but we are now really looking to see a new structure emerge.

Steve Rushton March 8, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Cover Signal at 2372

Market drops below the Buy Signal level and fails to recover by end of day.
We wait for the next signal.

Steve Rushton March 7, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Gap-fill

Market continues to retrace its steps and filled the open gap at 2369-2375 with a bounce off the long term projection from the February 2015 high (a major turn).

Price remains above the Buy Signal level for the time-being, but the risks seem higher with the continued drop in the T volume oscillator and the Osc oscillator also now indicating a slowing of the momentum.

Perhaps not yet, but at some point we should see another 'attempt' at the highs in-line with the next series of scheduled highs which are mid March and late March.

The Cluster T structures also point to peaks at those times but the T volume oscillator is not currently confirming any further strength in those structures, and this is suggesting that there is a low to be confirmed first.

Steve Rushton March 7, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update

Cover Signal?

With this morning's weakness, a Cover Signal is being activated and this will be confirmed at the close, unless of course the market rallies back above.

And so, it seems, we remain on a Buy Signal.

Steve Rushton March 6, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Playing catch up

Market playing catch up within the higher range, still in response to the echo high and the end of the large T structure.
Game remains on but more resolution is required.

Steve Rushton March 5, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update

Somewhere

"Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?'
'That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,' said the Cat.
'I don't much care where -' said Alice.
'Then it doesn't matter which way you go,' said the Cat.
'- so long as I get SOMEWHERE,' Alice added as an explanation.
'Oh, you're sure to do that,' said the Cat, 'if you only walk long enough."

– Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland, 1865

Yesterday's move certainly fits in with an ending of the Large Gray T structure and the Echo high, as the light selling in the morning just kept going all day.

Unfortunately, this also questions the validity of the extended arms of Cluster T structures as the T volume oscillator drops back below zero. The Buy Signal is still active due to the high level of price relative to the signal levels, but cautious.

A visit to the gap seems likely, and how we negociate that will be quite revealing…

Steve Rushton March 3, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Some more tea

"Take some more tea," the March Hare said to Alice, very earnestly.
"I've had nothing yet," Alice replied in an offended tone, "so I can't take more."
"You mean you can't take less," said the Hatter: "it's very easy to take more than nothing."
"Nobody asked your opinion," said Alice.”

– Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland,1865

A gap and go day and the market never looked back as it breaks out above the long term projection from the February 2015 high.
The T volume oscillator responds and returns to the zero level removing the previous cautious note from the previous days, and re-confirming the Cluster T structures.

This is potentially an important event for long term reference as it is suggesting another shift is occurring in the market similar to June 2014.

Of course, the market is now rather overbought, and at some extreme levels within the various channels, and so some form of consolidation would be normal but not necessarily essential – that was a formidable and urgent move yesterday and is, I beleive, telling us something important.

We should also be aware that yesterday is inline with the end of the Large gray T structure (+1 day) and if we see a rapid retreat from this level it would be explainable as the blow-off at the end of a large and powerful T structure. Interesting days ahead.

Steve Rushton March 2, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update

Target acheived, but what’s next?

What a different day? Looks like a lot of players positioned short and got badly burnt.

With the market bubbling about at 2400, we have reached yet another interesting numerical target.

Very close to my upper gray channel and also at the upper Extreme level which suggests that further gains might be limited. And with an Echo high scheduled for tomorrow we might see some profit-taking.

Is this the final thrust of the Large gray T structure, or is this confirming the possibility of further strength into late March as projected by the Cluster T structures?

Steve Rushton March 1, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Under the Hood

The Large gray T structure from the Election low is now complete (but with a possible 1-2 extra, maybe) and we could now see a significant reduction in buying power.

T volume oscillator makes a significant move down confirming that under the hood the market is entering a distribution phase.

The longer arms of the Cluster T structures are now under threat.

It wouldn't be surprising to see the market open out its range, perhaps make a token new high and also mark out a new lower range suggested by the descending line from the small gap at 2351.

In the meantime the averages are also playing catch up, and significant support lies at the rising lines from the previous consolidation period.

Steve Rushton March 1, 2017No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
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