Trading the Line

There she goes

The wintergreen, the juniper
The cornflower and the chicory
All the words you said to me
Still vibrating in the air
The elm, the ash and the linden tree
The dark and deep, enchanted sea
The trembling moon and the stars unfurled
There she goes, my beautiful world

Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds, There She Goes my Beautiful World…, 2004

–

Quite a day, with a harsh mini-flash crash sell off in the Futures market prior to the open in reaction to the numbers issued. Quickly forgotten in early trade as the market held the Buy Signal level and then moved higher, rapidly. Buy Signal very much active, indeed.

The market regains its important short term averages, and the T volume oscillator moves up strongly through the recent cash-build up line and this now confirms the new Large T structure with projections for highs in late February and March.

The 4 day thrust higher from a panic low, a signature for the initiation of a long lasting move higher, adds to the bullish picture.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton February 15, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Gilgamesh

The epic of Gilgamesh
A pretty little black A-line dress
I give to you
The spinal cord of JFK
Wrapped in Marilyn Monroe's negligee
I give to you
I want nothing in return
Just the softest little breathless word
I ask of you
A word contained in a grain of sand
That can barely walk, can't even stand
I ask of you

C'mon baby, let's get out of the cold
And gimme, gimme, gimme your precious love for me to hold

Grinderman, Palace of Montezuma, 2010
Songwriters: Nick Cave, Warren Ellis, Martyn P. Casey, Jim Sclavunos

–

An S/T BUY Signal at 2661 confirmed at the close.

Short Alert still active.

A gap down at the open is gradually shrugged off and the market grinds higher and up into an S/T Buy Signal at 2661.

Caution still required due to the high volatility and recent collapse in price, but the signs are that the market is now improving.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 14, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Shades of Black

Everybody sees
And everyone agrees
That you and I are wrong
And it's been that way too long
Take it as it comes
And be thankful when it's done
There's so many ways to act
And there's many shades of black
There's so many shades of black

The Raconteurs, Many Shades of Black, 2008
(Songwriters: Jack White /Brendan Benson)

–

The market gaps up into 2650, fills the gap and finds support around 2625.

The subsequent move higher triggers an S/T BUY Signal which is not confirmed by the relatively weak close.

With the volatility levels still very high the risk of another sell-off is still high. Patience and caution is required.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 13, 2018No Comments

S&P500 intraday update

S/T BUY Signal Not confirmed at the close

The Market triggered an S/T Buy Signal today but it wasn't confirmed by the slightly weak close.

The market has, however, shown considerable strength today, in-line with the signal from the T volume oscillator, and we may well see some follow through tomorrow.

Steve Rushton February 12, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Origin

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives,
not the most intelligent that survives.
It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”

Charles Darwin

–

A deep probe below 2600 finally finds some strong support… at 2530 – which was strong support in the Futures market early last week and site of the 200 day moving average.

Looks like an important low, for now, with the T volume oscillator looking good and displaying positive divergence with price.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 10, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

In a state

My mind is in a state
'cause everything I miss it comes too late
So I try and disappear
But there is only one way out of here
This time, this time

My mind is in a state
But all I need to do is change my pace
And I know there's fear to face
But happiness is firm in its embrace

This time, this time

Unkle, In a State, 2003
Songwriters: Richard File / Antony Genn / James Lavelle

–

Market drops out of the box, following through from the previous day and starts selling, relentlessly.

Now heading towards the recent low established by the Futures market at 2530 and into the lower extremes of the channel.

Still looking for the market to establish a low or series of low which will define the next large T structure(s), because it is the selling that creates the necessary fuel for the next major advance.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 9, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Eagle come down

Above the mountain, the mountain
An eagle is flying

High above the mountain
An eagle come down
To the soldier who falters
The soldier on the ground

By the mountain
I feel nothing
For in my own heart
Every tree is broken

The first tree will not blossom
The second will not grow
The third is almost fallen
Since you betrayed me so, since you

PJ Harvey, The Mountain, 2007

–

Market continues higher in early trade in an attempt to re-negotiate the 55 ema and the selling continues dragging into the close.

Sell Signal still active.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 8, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

On the mountain

After 20 years, you analyze a lot…
You know, remember people, heroism…
Many people come up to me and say, that, had they been there
They surely would have died. But no, it makes no sense…
Because until you're in a situation like that
You have no idea how you'll behave

Fronted by solitude without decadence or a…
Single material thing to prostitute and elevate you to a spiritual plane
Where I felt the presence of God
Now, there's the God they taught me about at school
And there is the God that's hidden…
by what surrounds us in this civilization
That's the God I met on the mountain

Words written by survivor Carlitos Paez and narrated by John Malkovich, for the film, Alive, 1993
Sampled in: Unkle ft Moby, In a State / God Moving Over the Face of the Waters, 2003

–

Another significant gap down at the open is bought as the market finds some strong support at 2600 and throughout the day at 2625 until finally pushing higher towards 2700.

This is starting to look like the market may have found a support level.

Still very much a market for ambitious daytraders or those with extremely deep pockets and/or an appetite for risk.

With such large movements the risk still remains very high with a high possibility of re-testing the lows again in due course, sooner or later.

The Sell signal remains valid until the market reaches the Buy Signal level which is still considerably higher.

Dangerous conditions, hedge accordingly.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 7, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Waterfall

See the steeple pine
The hills as old as time
Soon to be put to the test
To be whipped by the winds of the west

Stands on shifting sands
The scales held in her hands
The wind it just whips her away
And fills up her brigantine sails

She'll carry on through it all
She's a waterfall
She'll carry on through it all

She's a waterfall

The Stone Roses, Waterfall, 1989

–

An ugly continuation of the selling from last week. The 20 point gap down open is initially bought and then sold into at breakeven, and the market accelerates lower finding almost no support until slamming into 2650 in late afternoon. A 50 point bounce is then sold into the close.

The market quickly dismissed some important 'support' in the 2715 area and this quickly opened the trap-door for a waterfall decline.

A lot of damage done as the market quickly re-corrects down towards the levels last seen in the Fall. We are now looking at a decline of the order of the August 2015 and January 2016 which leads me to believe that we will see some extensive corrective action ahead as the market adjusts to the collapse from the recent all time high.

The market is now thoroughly 'out of wack' with itself, and the signal levels are way, way above the current price. Dangerous conditions indeed. Hedge all positions carefully and thoroughly, locking in profits incremently.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 6, 2018No Comments

FREE REPORTS S&P500 daily update

Hurt

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real
The needle tears a hole
The old familiar sting
Try to kill it all away
But I remember everything

What have I become?
My sweetest friend
Everyone I know
Goes away in the end
You could have it all
My empire of dirt
I will let you down
I will make you hurt

Trent Reznor, Hurt, 1995

An excellent cover by Johnny Cash was recorded on his last album, American IV The Man Comes Around, 2002

–

Welcome to the Trading the Line Free Report.

On Friday 26 January the market gapped higher and rallied to 2872 at (or just after) an important projection for a high from several of the structures, and one day after a scheduled echo high.

On 30 January the market gapped down significantly and below the S/T Buy / Cover Signal line at 2839. Failure to recover on the day confirmed the cover signal.

On Friday 02 February, the market gapped down again with a 20 point drop into the Sell Signal area at 2794, a slight bounce which failed and then the selling really starts dragging the market down, a relentless 60 points.

An S/T Sell signal at 2794.

An OSC Sell Signal at the close.

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The T volume oscillator has been in decline for several weeks, since 19 December, and is now at a very low level already (-89), and in the area that major lows can occur. The Brexit panic low was -117 for example.

So we are now looking for a low to occur and a strong bounce at some point but I suspect that the market will need a significant amount of stabilising first after this shock.

IF Friday's severe sell-off is an important low (and we do not know that yet, but it might be) then we can draw the possible T structure that could develop out of this low.

The decline of the the T volume oscillator since its recent high on 19 December describes a cash-build up line that represents the fuel that has been building as the market has been taking profits even whilst it has moved higher.

What we are looking for is for the oscillator to rise upwards and ultimately through the declining cash-build up line and this will then define the next T structure with the waves of selling from the oscillator high and from the various price highs, projecting the next series of highs in the market.

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At the moment the market looks very dangerous and volatile as it seeks for support for the first time since the late summer. As we have already very rapidly moved down to the first level support line (notice the rising line under the previous lows), it may be that momentum will continue to drive lower, perhaps towards the important 55 ema and lower edge of the gray channel.

What does seem likely is that the range of the market will continue to be expansive.

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On the weekly chart we can see that the market moved beyond the target trend-line from the 2014-15 peaks and now appears to have made an exhaustion point. Perhaps this was just an overshoot and we are now seeing a return to the trend?

–

In the meantime, the simplicity of my proprietary S/T Signalling System continues to keep us on the correct side of the market, providing an appropriate cover signal and a very necessary red light when necessary.

If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.

–

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 5, 2018No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

“There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.”
The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt