Trading the Line

The road that leads to everywhere

Take the road you know, the road that leads to everywhere
Spend the time where everyone and anyone is there
Something new's already old, we've heard it all before

In, out, in and out
Here by word of mouth
It's right here right now
Feel dead or alive

We'll be gone in a while
In the blinking of an eye
So give me quality time, baby
Quality time

UNKLE, The Road, 2017

–

Welcome to the Trading the Line Free Report.

Another exciting week, and a major development.

A Buy Signal on 05 March at 2713. The market stabilises and back-tests 2700, builds a platform, moves higher, builds another platform at 2725, and then… boom, the market bursts higher on Friday to gap up above 2750 and head for the recent high at 2780. A huge day that will of course leave many wondering… what's next?

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As you can see, the Osc oscillator is now rising and supporting the strong upward momentum, the market has moved upwards through the series of declining resistance lines from the all time high, the market has found recent support at the Mid-Channel and the gray channel has turned upwards. The general direction is now up.

Of course, we may need to see some stabilisation and profit-taking after Friday's strong move up, and the market is quite a long way above the curent Buy Signal level. Some caution is still required.

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However, the T volume oscillator is making a new relative high.

We can see from the T volume oscillator that we have a major low in place – with the oscillator rising strongly from a classic rising 'W' pattern at a very low level, and then we have another higher low, also with the oscillator rising strongly. The oscillator has risen upwards through the descending lines drawn from the oscillator peaks.

In T Theory these lines represent the period of cash-build up from the profit-taking and selling within the market as a whole because the oscillator is derived from the advance-decline volume of the NYSE.

As we can see the oscillator has been generally declining since a peak at 72 on 19 December, and made primary and secondary lows on 05 and 08 February. Each time the oscillator cuts upwards through the cash-build up line it confirms and activates this T structure. The market then uses the cash-build up from the left-hand side of the T to form the right-hand side of the T. Each wave of selling produces projections for highs within the T structure.

Friday's strong push upwards through the new higher cash build up line fully re-activates the Primary T structure and the Secondary T structure combining them into one powerful structure potentially releasing further strength to the upside, with the current full extent of the T structure now projecting highs towards the end of March. We should therefore see a general continuation higher into a peak at that time. If the oscillator rises above 72 it will also activate further sections of the previous cash-build ups. How the oscillator performs relative to price is therefore relevant.

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Zooming out to the weekly chart, we can see that price does not currently want to stay in the old channel – marked in blue.

The strong move up during the Fall of 2017 pushed the market up beyond the resistance projection lines from the 2000 peaks, and also through the rising trend lines from the 2014-15 peaks until it became unsustainable.

I suspect that a similar process is happening as did when the market started to move up through the resistance projection lines from the 2007 peak in 2014. The spike down to 2530 (like the spike down to 1820 in October 2014) now defines a very long term horizontal support line that we may need to revisit in the future, if or when the market cannot continue higher. As with the October 2014 low, it may be re-visited several times over several months in the process of building a major new structure, and a platform for higher prices.

For now, it seems likely that the market will continue to explore the higher prices and the region within the rising trend lines from 2014 and 2015.

2018 continues to bring with it some very exciting trading and a range that is far beyond the experience of recent years. We should expect it to continue and trade accordingly. This is a Brave New World.

–

In the meantime, the simplicity of my proprietary price based S/T Signalling System continues to keep us on the correct side of the market, providing a timely Buy signal and a green light again, for now.

If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.

–

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton March 11, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Through all these tears

Somethings gone
This can't go on
It's all been wrong
For far too long
Through all these tears
No light appears
And all that trust
Has turned to dust
So one things clear
I wanna hear
I wanna hear
So break on through
For something true
'cause love's confused
And love does see
Sense in all of this
Something's gotta give

UNKLE, Inside, 2003

Songwriters: Patricia Rothberg / Patti Rothberg

–

The market continues see-sawing higher, putting in a base at 2725 and pushing higher in afternoon trade.

A continued improvement – holding up above the 55 ema, oscillators turning up, volatility dropping a little, and that characteristic buying into the close.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton March 9, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Like a kite

“Throw your dreams into space like a kite,
and you do not know what it will bring back,
a new life, a new friend, a new love, a new country.”

Anaïs Nin

–

An after hours news related drop in the Futures has the market re-testing the 2700 level and the Buy Signal level. The initial response is strong buying but the market takes another look-see to confirm this important support.

Failure of this level would most likely have sent the market down to re-test the recent lows around 2650 at a minimum.

The subsequent bounce off 2700 takes the market back to the recent high, and the current Buy Signal remains strong.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton March 8, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

The Rain Falls and the Sky Shudders

Moby, The Rain Falls and the Sky Shudders, 1993

–

A gap up open to 2732 is sold into with profit-taking and the resulting retracement to 2715 is met with buyers and a base is built for furher exploration of the 2730 level. A slightly hesistant market and at the next projection for a high from the primary T Structure.

An echo high scheduled for today, and another later in the week.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton March 7, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Colette

Initial weakness is bought strongly and the market moves rapidly higher through the Buy Signal line at 2713.

The strong move up is supported by the T volume oscillator which moves up to the zero level.

A positive development but further strength is still required to fully re-activate the cash-build up from December and release the market to the upside.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton March 6, 2018No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S/T BUY Signal at 2713

A strong move up through the Buy Signal level and held into the close.

Steve Rushton March 5, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Piran

The market gapped down but after initial weakness held the 2650 level and found buyers throughout the day to recover into the close. No follow through to the Sell Signal, and although the signal is technically still active (but only just) it seems likely that the market is stabilising again.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton March 4, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Losing Ground

Losing ground
Under my feet
There's a low rumbling
There's a crack in the street
It's just no good
It's just no good anymore
Everything I do
Has been done before

Yeah I found my voice
Yeah I got nothing to say
The whole thing started
Cause my mind has gone away
I used to get high
Now I just get lost
I used to bark at the moon
The first one I came across

PJ Harvey, Losing Ground, 1996

–

Initial weakness triggers a Sell signal at 2705 but this is quickly bought with a surge to 2730.

The selling resumes and another Sell Signal is triggered at 2705 in early afternoon trade with the market dropping quickly to find buyers at 2660 and a slight recovery into the close.

Sell Signal still active but suggest to take profits yesterday and re-assess this morning. Look for selling into bounces to continue if the market is going lower.

With weakness below the important pivot we are now looking for another low and a new structure to form in due course. Watch for divergence.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton March 2, 2018No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S/T SELL at 2705

A false start this morning with an S/T Sell Signal at 2705 which bounced rapidly and surged to 2729.

From that point the market worked its way lower and finally broke 2705 in early afternoon trade.

Steve Rushton March 1, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Yoke

Brothers be ye constant.
The yoke which with single mind ye have taken, bear ye to the end;
and whatsoever ye have seen with me and heard, keep and fulfil.

Saint David, † 589

–

The market continues to sell into any strength and continues lower into the close with a Cover Signal triggered at 2734.

The T volume oscillator drops again significantly in-line with the selling and this now establishes 26 February as an important high, putting the new T under increased pressure and it may now be collapsing or complete. This now identifies 24 January as an important beginning of the decline from the all time high.

This of course now places the market back at what was important support for another test of strength.

IF the selling continues we will be looking for another low to combine with the previous one and form another T structure in due course.

IF the market recovers rapidly, we have additional projections for highs in early and late March.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton March 1, 2018No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
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“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
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The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
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A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
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A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
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The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
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