S&P500 daily update

Eagle come down

Above the mountain, the mountain
An eagle is flying

High above the mountain
An eagle come down
To the soldier who falters
The soldier on the ground

By the mountain
I feel nothing
For in my own heart
Every tree is broken

The first tree will not blossom
The second will not grow
The third is almost fallen
Since you betrayed me so, since you

PJ Harvey, The Mountain, 2007

–

Market continues higher in early trade in an attempt to re-negotiate the 55 ema and the selling continues dragging into the close.

Sell Signal still active.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton February 8, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

On the mountain

After 20 years, you analyze a lot…
You know, remember people, heroism…
Many people come up to me and say, that, had they been there
They surely would have died. But no, it makes no sense…
Because until you're in a situation like that
You have no idea how you'll behave

Fronted by solitude without decadence or a…
Single material thing to prostitute and elevate you to a spiritual plane
Where I felt the presence of God
Now, there's the God they taught me about at school
And there is the God that's hidden…
by what surrounds us in this civilization
That's the God I met on the mountain

Words written by survivor Carlitos Paez and narrated by John Malkovich, for the film, Alive, 1993
Sampled in: Unkle ft Moby, In a State / God Moving Over the Face of the Waters, 2003

–

Another significant gap down at the open is bought as the market finds some strong support at 2600 and throughout the day at 2625 until finally pushing higher towards 2700.

This is starting to look like the market may have found a support level.

Still very much a market for ambitious daytraders or those with extremely deep pockets and/or an appetite for risk.

With such large movements the risk still remains very high with a high possibility of re-testing the lows again in due course, sooner or later.

The Sell signal remains valid until the market reaches the Buy Signal level which is still considerably higher.

Dangerous conditions, hedge accordingly.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 7, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Waterfall

See the steeple pine
The hills as old as time
Soon to be put to the test
To be whipped by the winds of the west

Stands on shifting sands
The scales held in her hands
The wind it just whips her away
And fills up her brigantine sails

She'll carry on through it all
She's a waterfall
She'll carry on through it all

She's a waterfall

The Stone Roses, Waterfall, 1989

–

An ugly continuation of the selling from last week. The 20 point gap down open is initially bought and then sold into at breakeven, and the market accelerates lower finding almost no support until slamming into 2650 in late afternoon. A 50 point bounce is then sold into the close.

The market quickly dismissed some important 'support' in the 2715 area and this quickly opened the trap-door for a waterfall decline.

A lot of damage done as the market quickly re-corrects down towards the levels last seen in the Fall. We are now looking at a decline of the order of the August 2015 and January 2016 which leads me to believe that we will see some extensive corrective action ahead as the market adjusts to the collapse from the recent all time high.

The market is now thoroughly 'out of wack' with itself, and the signal levels are way, way above the current price. Dangerous conditions indeed. Hedge all positions carefully and thoroughly, locking in profits incremently.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 6, 2018No Comments

FREE REPORTS S&P500 daily update

Hurt

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real
The needle tears a hole
The old familiar sting
Try to kill it all away
But I remember everything

What have I become?
My sweetest friend
Everyone I know
Goes away in the end
You could have it all
My empire of dirt
I will let you down
I will make you hurt

Trent Reznor, Hurt, 1995

An excellent cover by Johnny Cash was recorded on his last album, American IV The Man Comes Around, 2002

–

Welcome to the Trading the Line Free Report.

On Friday 26 January the market gapped higher and rallied to 2872 at (or just after) an important projection for a high from several of the structures, and one day after a scheduled echo high.

On 30 January the market gapped down significantly and below the S/T Buy / Cover Signal line at 2839. Failure to recover on the day confirmed the cover signal.

On Friday 02 February, the market gapped down again with a 20 point drop into the Sell Signal area at 2794, a slight bounce which failed and then the selling really starts dragging the market down, a relentless 60 points.

An S/T Sell signal at 2794.

An OSC Sell Signal at the close.

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The T volume oscillator has been in decline for several weeks, since 19 December, and is now at a very low level already (-89), and in the area that major lows can occur. The Brexit panic low was -117 for example.

So we are now looking for a low to occur and a strong bounce at some point but I suspect that the market will need a significant amount of stabilising first after this shock.

IF Friday's severe sell-off is an important low (and we do not know that yet, but it might be) then we can draw the possible T structure that could develop out of this low.

The decline of the the T volume oscillator since its recent high on 19 December describes a cash-build up line that represents the fuel that has been building as the market has been taking profits even whilst it has moved higher.

What we are looking for is for the oscillator to rise upwards and ultimately through the declining cash-build up line and this will then define the next T structure with the waves of selling from the oscillator high and from the various price highs, projecting the next series of highs in the market.

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At the moment the market looks very dangerous and volatile as it seeks for support for the first time since the late summer. As we have already very rapidly moved down to the first level support line (notice the rising line under the previous lows), it may be that momentum will continue to drive lower, perhaps towards the important 55 ema and lower edge of the gray channel.

What does seem likely is that the range of the market will continue to be expansive.

Save the image to your desktop to view a larger version

On the weekly chart we can see that the market moved beyond the target trend-line from the 2014-15 peaks and now appears to have made an exhaustion point. Perhaps this was just an overshoot and we are now seeing a return to the trend?

–

In the meantime, the simplicity of my proprietary S/T Signalling System continues to keep us on the correct side of the market, providing an appropriate cover signal and a very necessary red light when necessary.

If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.

–

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 5, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Thunder

And she turned around and took me by the hand and said,
I've lost control again.
And how I'll never know just why or understand,
She said I've lost control again.

Joy Division, She's Lost Control, 1979
(Bernard Sumner, Ian Curtis, Peter Hook, Stephen Morris)

–

A 20 point drop into the Sell Signal area, a slight bounce which fails and then the selling really starts.

An S/T Sell signal at 2794.

An OSC Sell Signal.

T volume oscillator at a very low level already (-89), so we are now looking for a low to occur and a strong bounce at some point but the market will need a significant amount of stabilising first after this shock.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 3, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Groundhog

Market stabilising. An attempt towards the Buy Signal line is sold back down to the low of the day, and the momentum is therefore still down.

Declining channel still active.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 2, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Thorn

Onward! And Onward! And Onward I go
Where no man before could be bothered to go
Till the soles of my shoes are shot full of holes
And it's all downhill with a bullet…

Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds, Do You Love Me? (Part 2), 1994

–

Market continues to stabilise and back away slightly from the recent high, defining a declining channel.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton February 1, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Marianne

Now so long, Marianne
It's time that we began to laugh
And cry and cry and laugh about it all again

Well, you know that I love to live with you
But you make me forget so very much
I forget to pray for the angels
And then the angels forget to pray for us

Leonard Cohen, So Long, Marianne, 1967

–

A gap down below the cover signal level without any significant recovery, suggesting that the market needs some further stabilisation.

Zooming out you can see that the recent peak synchronised with the projection for a high from the 15 March peak, reinforced by similar projections from the smaller more recent structures.

There is the possibility for another high associated with the earlier peak on 01 March – another attempt at a high perhaps?

We are now looking for some kind of low to occur. The T volume oscillator has been in decline and forming a cash-build up line since the 18 December high and is already at a level associated with lows (-55) though of course it can go much lower. This is the fuel for the next advance. Look for stabilisation in the oscillator and then a move upwards through the cash-build up line to initiate the next T structure.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton January 31, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Alive

Oil dripping on my head
Let's go back to bed
Bring you back
Bring you back
From the dead
From the dead
Wishing you were here by me
Wishing you were here
Let's massage history
All the money's gone
All the money's gone
Funny it was never here
It was never here
Here's a song
Here's a song
To massage along
History along
Come with me
To the other side
Not everyone makes it out alive
Come with me
To the other side not everyone makes it out
Alive

– Sonic Youth, Massage the History, 2009

–

Price proves to be unsustainable above the gray channel (again).

The T volume oscillator drops significantly, showing the strength of the profit-taking yesterday and suggesting that the market does need some consolidation after such a powerful start to the year.

Watch for declining resistance at the high to confirm whether the move is complete, or not, as the averages catch up with price.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton January 30, 2018No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Fly Me Away

Fly me away on an aeroplane
High in the sky
Wanna see you again
Wanna know this time

Gonna tell you what I'm feeling
Gonna know this time
Gonna get it back, that feeling

Miles and miles of sun
Endless roads, twist on
Don't wanna live a life
In a world that's all the same
The crazy little things
That you do are magical

This crazy life
This crazy world
We're living in is
Magical

– Goldfrapp, Fly Me Away, 2005. Songwriters: Alison Elizabeth Goldfrapp / William Owen Gregory

–

Market gaps up and beyond the possible declining angle at the mid week high, and closes with yet another major high, in-line with the Large(r) T structure, as the market continues to show no signs of letting up on the parabolic move.

T volume oscillator turns back above zero.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

Steve Rushton January 28, 2018No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal active below 7462 st 7440 on 17 July

COVER Signal below 7522 at 7440 on 17 July

S/T BUY Signal at 7398 on 29 June

S/T SELL Signal active below 7344 on 26 June

COVER Short Signal above 7361 on 25 June

S/T SELL Signal below 7422 on 23 June

COVER Signal below 7452 at 7365 on 23 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7500 on 18 June

COVER Short Signal at 7500 on 18 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7424 on 17 June

COVER Signal at 7454 on 17 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7404 on 11 June

COVER Short Signal at 7337 on 10 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7462 on 05 June

COVER Signal at 7553 on 05 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7586 on 04 June

COVER Signal at 7554 on 03 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 20 May

COVER Signal at 7411 on 15 May

S/T BUY Signal at 6457 on 31 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6398 on 31 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6543 on 26 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6600 at 6620 on 25 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6567 on 25 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Signal at 6590 on 23 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6623 on 23 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6563 at 6600 on 23 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6666 on 18 Mar

COVER Signal at 6693 on 18 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6729 on 16 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6668 at 6698 on 16 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

More Recommended

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: Annotated Edition

by Jon D. Markman

With new commentary and Insights on the life and times of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous financial speculator of all time–Jesse Livermore. This annotated edition bridges the gap between Edwin Lefevre′s fictionalized account of Livermore′s life and the actual, historical events, places, and people that populate the book. It also describes the variety of trading approaches Livermore used throughout his life and analyzes his psychological development as a trader and the lessons gained through hard experiences.

“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

“There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.”
The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt