S&P500 daily update

A re-test of the important 2683 level is rejected but the market finds some support at the previous low at 2660.

Market still very much responding to the declining angles, selling into strength, but looking for value at lower prices.

The Mid channel starts to turn up, and this could provide some support in the days to come.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

A weak open and selling down into last week's gap and a bounce at 2682.

A re-test of the rising trend or the beginning of another leg down?

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Depending upon exactly how you draw the declining line connecting the previous two major price highs, we could ask the question: Are we there yet?

To recap, on 02 April the market penetrated the lower extreme of the channel for (only) the second time this year and this initiated another fast recovery with some signs of bullish divergence such as a higher low in the oscillators.
On the 06 April another flush downwards – a re-test of the lows – was bought strongly and the market has rapidly moved up through each level of price resistance since then.

On 10 April movement up above the S/T channel triggered a strong Buy Signal which is still active.

From a T Theory perspective, we can draw a T structure that projects the next price high. The left side of the 'T' starts at the tweezer tops on 12 and 13 March (where the most recent decline started from) and is centred at the low (where the decline end). The selling pressure during the decline is the fuel for the advance and produces a force that is equal in time – the right side of the 'T' – and therefore projects into 19 and 20 April. We do not know how high the force will drive the market but we know that the next highs(s) should be within the next two days.

Of course, there are additional declines that may produce further 'waves' and there is a double bottom structure emerging that could power the market higher, but what happens next will be critical.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

In Vegas, everybody's gotta watch everybody else. Since the players are looking to beat the casino, the dealers are watching the players. The box men are watching the dealers. The floor men are watching the box men. The pit bosses are watching the floor men. The shift bosses are watching the pit bosses. The casino manager is watching the shift bosses. I'm watching the casino manager. And the eye-in-the-sky is watching us all

Casino, 1995, Dir: Martin Scorsese

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A very positive development as the market leaps higher and closes firmly above the important 55 ema and major pivot. Very much on a Buy signal, and certainly a bit extended with the next negotiation being the declining resistance lines and channel lines just above.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Another gap up, holds up above the open and makes an attempt on 2687. Technically an improvement as the market comes up into what may be strong resistance above.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly.”

Martin Luther King Jr., Letter from the Birmingham Jail, 1963

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Market gap up open at 2580 proves too much, too soon, and the market consequently sells down into 2652.

A weakened market then struggles at 2668 before an afternoon swoon to 2645 before finding some strength into the close at 2656.

The market identifies an important level to be negotiated moving forward, as the 55 ema is a major pivot and as above is below or vice versa. Rejection here means that more work is required, with of course the possibility of another leg down.

Still holding up above the Buy signal level, with a rising short-term movement meeting a longer term declining trend. Push and pull.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Another gap up and push to 2674 and the market closes back above the Mid-channel for the first time since 16 March – a very positive development.

Very much on a Buy signal but still characterised by spikes into 'resistance'.

Next negotiation is the declining line from the recent high and the major pivot of the 55 ema.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Though I'm past one hundred thousand miles
I'm feeling very still
And I think my spaceship knows which way to go
Tell my wife I love her very much she knows
Ground Control to Major Tom
Your circuit's dead, there's something wrong
Can you hear me, Major Tom?

David Bowie, Space Oddity, 1969

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Another one of those days, opened down, went up, and then came back down again – its becoming a signature of this recent market.

Struggling at the moment with the downward pressure from the Mid-channel and declining resistance lines.

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

“The first key to leadership was self-control, particularly the mastery of pride, which was something more difficult, he explained, to subdue than a wild lion and anger, which was more difficult to defeat than the greatest wrestler. He warned them that "if you can't swallow your pride, you can't lead.”

Jack Weatherford, Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World, 2004

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A massive gap up significantly above the S/T Buy signal level at 2628 with a slight pullback to 2640 allows for an early entry at 2641.

Strength throughout the day with the market finding some natural resistance at the 2660 level, and a high at the Mid-channel at 2664.

The OSc oscillator makes a Buy Signal and the T volume oscillator rises strongly supporting the current T structure and double-bottom DB structure.

A significant improvement but the warnings continue and risk remains high

 

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Oh, mountain of our eyes, what do you see?
The girl with the omen dice, bowing to thee
Mortal soldiers clear the path, shake the omen tree
Oh, mountain of our eyes, oh plea
Oh, hear our plea

Patti Smith, Fuji-San, 2012
(Songwriters: Leonard J Kaye / Patti Smith)

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Another day of two halves and a recurring theme, a strong recovery to 2653 triggering an S/T Buy Signal at 2633, and an afternoon collapse to close back at the low of the day at 2613.

The volatility refuses to allow price to stabilise, and the market's current logic, if it aint going any higher it must be going down continues. But for how long I wonder?

The market is making a massive consolidation pattern – laying railroad tracks even, and this is winding up an increasingly large amount of energy – like a coiled spring – which will undoubtably explode one way or the other in a significant trend that will probably surprise most everybody.

The logic of railroad tracks is that they often break to the downside and this is therefore a bit of a warning because this consolidation could well be preparation for a waterfall decline.

What would be the least expected outcome? A recovery to the all time high or another 10% decline?

In the meantime, the Osc oscillator looks close to a Buy signal and the double bottom structure is still intact.

The flip side to the negativity is that at some point the market will discount all of the negativity – effectively pricing it in – and find a level that is acceptable to move higher from.

Futures are up – significantly – and so another attempt at the recent highs is on the cards for today.

 

Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.