crapshoot ?

Mixed signals. Wait for the oscillator to confirm the move, and/or wait for a closing price above or below the current congestion.

The upside would appear to be rather limited, and so I am inclined to favour the downside. However recent action is a reminder of how bullish the market is/has been.

The recent increase in daily volatility since beginning of 2014 is also suggesting that I will need to increase the intraday stops for the signals, hence 2 recent sell signals at the low of the day.

Chart of the S&P500 for March 26 2014

large move ahead

We did see a recovery of sorts so that the market is sitting right at the sell line. Frustrating indeed.

We are setting up for a large move, so we need to watch the oscillator now. If it recovers and moves above the upper black band then the large move may well be up. But at the moment the signals are sideways to downwards.

Chart of S&P500 for March 25th 2014

out of the woods ?

Starting to resolve to the upside.
Keep an eye on the oscillator as a move back above the black band would signal further strength and would probably be synchonised with a breakout to new highs. Short term target is 1894 – see what happens above.

Chart for S&P500 for March 21st 2014

dont fight the fed

Oops – if in doubt press the sell button! So the news is in and maybe that's all we needed.

Not quite a Sell signal so we will need to watch the action over the next few days to find out which way is the one of least resistance. Nice bounce off the previous support line at 1. so we should respect that for today.

chart of S&P500 for 20 March 2014