Sell Short Signal (again) at 1952

OK, so you get a Buy Signal on monday – you sell.
You get a sell signal on tuesday – you buy.
You get a buy signal on wednesday – you sell.

Notice the magnitude is getting larger – remember the megaphone comments on Sept 23 at 1983.
Notice that the one day rallies are sold into

This must be a bear market cause everyone is getting taken out and beaten up.
This might be expected if we were below the 200 day ma (1904) but we aren't yet.

This leads me to suspect that this may be the tip of a much greater decline, perhaps a manic selloff into late October to re-charge the Bull, perhaps something worse. We have been warned.

 

Buy Signal at 1960

A nice relief rally and close above the Buy Signal level of 1960.

Lots of potential resistance above – 55 Ema at 1971 and midpoint at 1979,
but the T Theory volume oscillator looks great.

Assuming that we can get through the resistance and close above 1983, then we have the potential for new highs.

It looks like we have a cluster of highs scheduled for oct 14 and 17 – into expiration.

Chart of S&P500 for 9 October 2014

Pop and drop

OK we failed the initial pop, and failed to get above the 55ema, which were my reservations on the Buy Signal on Friday.

Futures are down 9 at this moment and if we fail to recover today, then another low may be required. Maybe test the prevous lows – 1926 and/or 1905.

Watch to see if we find some kind of support on one of the rising lines from the Oct 2 spike low, or Not.

Chart of S&P500 for 7 October 2014

Small T structure confirmed ?

Market recovered enough, and held on Friday afternoon to confirm a short term Buy Signal, and Futures are positive this morning so the expected follow through should remove any doubts.

It looks like the T will provide bullish strength into October 24.

Watch out for any failure below the S2 support angle, currently at 1985.

Chart of S&p500 for 6 October 2014

and now some real selling

Elevator down.

Reminders for future reference:

– use Vol. Oscillator low to determine peaks when there is a discrepancy between oscillator and price lows.
– when you have an oscillator sell signal in play, and then a token new high, look for a kiss goodbye of the rising trendline that it broke

And so where do we bounce?

Maybe here
But ideally a bit lower – 1930 or 1908

Watch for stabilisation just below or near to the grey lower boundary of the channel

Chart of S&P500 for 2 October 2014

 

Rally into October

Holding onto the S2 support.
Looks like we could get a couple days of strength into resistance and to finish off this blue T structure.

And then I would expect a quick flush out to the 1930's, perhaps 1910's for an October Low and Buying opportunity into the Winter.

Chart of S&P500 for 30 September 2014