Posts by Steve Rushton

Ideas are like fish. If you want to catch little fish, you can stay in the shallow water.
But if you want to catch the big fish, you’ve got to go deeper.
Down deep, the fish are more powerful and more pure.They’re huge and abstract. And they’re very beautiful.

– David Lynch, Catching the Big Fish: Meditation, Consciousness, and Creativity

Whilst observing the additional strength in this market, I have found it fascinating to consider its source.

As you can see from the previous posts I have discussed the appearance of what I call a cluster T structure – a normal T structure is centred over a low in the market but a cluster T structure is centred over a series of lows, and the market gains considerable internal power from a series of lows that do not release to the downside, but release to the upside instead. Call it short covering if you like.

It seems clear that the market has been re-cycling its energy, whilst also continuing to rise – an interesting phenomenon in itself.

Whilst trying to assess where the turn in the market might have been, I am looking at the T volume oscillator for clues, because this will assist in projecting the future highs. However it is also important to compare price action.

It is obvious to me that the market is now using the cash-build up that was produced in the December and January period and that in effect a new T structure has emerged projecting into late March. Because there is no obvious low, the question is where does one place the centre for this new structure?

The blue Cluster T structure drawn below centres on January 19 – the final low of the flat period before the market bounces higher, but I have also drawn an alternative (in red) that is centred at 30 January because this is the final oscillator low before the recent push higher.

Interestingly the action at 30 January into 2nd February is like a series of double taps, and the oscillator makes a W pattern – a signature T Theory pattern for a low.

The market has been building the power that is now being revealed… and it has some way to go.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Thus we find that … Love … is the ancient source of all our highest good. …
For Neither family, nor privilege, nor wealth, nor anything but Love can light that beacon which a man must steer by when he sets out to live the better life.
How shall I describe [love], but [as] that contempt for the vile, and emulation of the good, without neither cities nor citizens are capable of any great or noble work.

Plato, The Symposium, 178d

The T volume oscillator moves higher and above its previous high confirming the new provisionally placed cluster T structure. The placement of this is provisional because there are a number of possible placements – all of which could be correct to some degree.

The OSC oscillator moves above its upper band indicating strong upward momentum.

The total Put/Call ratio reaches a level associated with tops, but this is not reflected in the cumulative Arms index.

Relative Strength reaches levels associated with tops, and the Vix moves up with the market – usually a contrary indication but this may be due to Vix Futures expiration tomorrow.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

I've come back for you…
to remind you of something. Something you once knew…
That this world is not real.
To convince me to honor our arrangement.
To take a leap of faith, yes. Come back…
so we can be young men together again.
Come back with me…

Inception, 2010, Dir. Christopher Nolan

As I suspected over the last few days, the renewed strength of the Bull market and the recent behaviour of the T volume oscillator is suggesting that the series of recent shallow lows has formed the new 'Cluster T Structure' marked in blue. The positioning of this T structure is provisionally placed at 19 January.
This provides for a series of highs in mid February in line with the original Large 'Trump' T structure, but also projecting into mid and late March in line with the cycle highs marked in pink and green.

Of course, as you can see, we find ourselves at an important rising line projected from previous highs, and so it wouldn't be surprising to see some consolidation as this level similar to recent passages. However, the additional strength I am observing here seems to be suggesting a break upwards through this line and targets 2350-2400, perhaps quickly.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

I was blind, now I can see…
you made a believer out of me…
I'm moving on up now, getting out of the darkness…
My light shines on, my light shines on, my light shines on…

Primal Scream, Moving on Up, 1991

Moving on up and breaking out again.

Of course, this might be a top, and we do have an arm of the T structure projecting to February 8 (and the previous major arm was 1 or 2 days late), so we could also certainly expect to see a peak hereabouts.

BUT we are also potentially seeing a re-emergence of the bullish strength that lifted the market up from November, and I am seeing another cash-build up ready to be used, and I am seeing momentum to the upside increasing.

I think that yesterday may have been an important break proving the Bulls' aggressive intentions and we might be looking at a runaway breakaway situation into a blow off top.

The T volume oscillator is close to breaking a large cash build up line.

We watch the oscillators for clues and price is the leading indicator.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes which explain how this system works.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

 

 

Another strong bounce off the rising gann line from the New Years Eve low and continuing to test the descending resistance from the recent all time highs (at 2294-97).

We will have to break one of these lines soon, perhaps a probe higher to 2315, or a drop down to take a look-see at the 55 Ema, currently at 2253.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, more clarity and explanations, larger images and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and Explanatory Notes.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Grind away continues with another rejection at 2300, as the market continues to try to creep higher, in what is becoming a familiar re-test of each significant peak. And re-inforces the current descending resistance line.

A significant break of the range will bring in additional buyers or sellers, but in the meantime we need to remain patient.

Possible turn today/tomorrow with another major arm of the T structure expiring.

Price is still 'on a Buy Signal' but the T volume oscillator refuses to confirm any strength, yet.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, more clarity and explanations, larger images and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and Explanatory Notes.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

It's the terror of knowing
What this world is about
Watching some good friends
Screaming let me out
Pray tomorrow gets me higher higher high

Under Pressure, Queen & David Bowie, 1982

And sparking on vapors.

Buy Signal under pressure already due to the strong descending resistance at 2295.
And the T volume oscillator turns back down below zero

Market continues the squeeze and tease, maybe we get a few more pops, and short-covering rallies, but this is the Trump T endgame.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, more clarity and explanations, larger images and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and Explanatory Notes.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Having played all week with the idea of selling, Mr Market decides to re-visit the all time highs with a squeeze play from the perfect 10 position on thursday.

Assuming that this isn't just a pop and drop (which it could be) then we have the possibility of strength into the next arm of the T structure on February 8, but we have significant resistance here to negociate.

This period is very reminiscent of the final few weeks of the the previous T structure associated with the Brexit low in late September – a very choppy and confusing market indeed.

Be prepared: To receive detailed daily analysis, more clarity and explanations, larger images and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and Explanatory Notes.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions