Equus

Triangulation continues near the highs, and with a tightening squeeze, we find ourselves back in the confusion of the chopshop zone of the mid-channel.

Chart of S&P 500 for 21 March 2017

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Spring Equinox

light meets dark in equilibrium

Small rally off 2378 met with resistance and the selling into any strength continues.
Not a great indicator for the upside, and the beginnings of a triangular pattern suggests more consolidation to come until we process the descending diagonal.

Chart of S&P 500 for 20 March 2017

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Saint Patrick

Yesterday I dared to struggle. Today I dare to win.
Bernadette Devlin McAliskey

Testing the recent high, acknowledging the descending resistance from the all time high, and some back-filling prior to the March expiration. Watch out for the usual shenanigans as traders re-set for April.

A weekend of Irish playfulness awaits.

Chart of S&P 500 for 16 March 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Double tap dont look back

What if all the world's inside of your head
Just creations of your own?
Your devils and your gods
All the living and the dead
And you're really all alone?
You can live in this illusion
You can choose to believe
You keep looking but you can't find the woods
While you're hiding in the trees

Trent Reznor (Nine Inch Nails – Right Where it Belongs, from 'With Teeth', 2005)

A solid response to pre Fed whispers and the main event as the market leaves the double tap behind and heads for the highs, confirming the recent S/T Buy Signal and the small T centred on the 9 March low – a small W pattern with higher low and higher oscillator.

Next negotiations are the Pulse high that was pre-scheduled to coincide with the Ides of March, and the Echo high scheduled for Monday 20 March, and all of a sudden it seems more likely that we extend higher into late March as the Bull displays its horns again.

Chart of S&P 500 for 16 March 2017

Do you keep looking but can't find the woods?
Are you still hiding in the trees?

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Ides of March

Soothsayer. Caesar!
Caesar. Ha! who calls?
Casca. Bid every noise be still: peace yet again!
Caesar. Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue, shriller than all the music,
Cry 'Caesar!' Speak; Caesar is turn'd to hear.
Soothsayer. Beware the ides of March.
Caesar. What man is that?
Brutus. A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Julius Caesar, Act I, Scene 2

Another probe into the Mid-channel, and teasing with a 'cover signal'.
Weak Buy Signal still active but no follow thru yet, as we wait for the Fed's decision and commentary. Hedge accordingly.

Chart of S&P 500 for 15 March 2017

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Transcendence

The most beautiful experience we can have is the mysterious.
It is the fundamental emotion that stands at the cradle of true art and true science.

Albert Einstein, The World As I See It, 1930

Another one of those days when you could have been excused for not coming into work early.
Still trading mostly above the averages and gently pushing upwards into the close.

Chart of S&P500 for 14 March 2017

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The Power of T Theory

As mentioned in my last report, prior to the much anticipated 28 February peak at the end of the Large gray T structure, there was some doubt as to whether the Cluster T structures that had emerged during the final stages of the large gray T structure would have any effect upon extending the gray structure into March and April.

This was due to the ominous drop in the T volume oscillator just prior to the end-date which in-effect was cancelling out the extensions of the Cluster T structures and bringing them into doubt.

It is now clear that we did indeed make a final and dramatic peak in-line with the end of the Large gray T stucture centred around the per-election low. The market used every day of that projection in its search for new highs and a distinct lack of buying power and market breadth has been noted since the pop on the 1 of March.

The one day margin of error was previously noted on the 25th January and takes into account the fact that the T volume oscillator turned 2 days prior to price at the low. This is indeed a powerful example of T Theory's accuracy in projecting highs from major lows in the market.

Chart of S&P 500 for 12 March 2017

The recent descent from the highs towards 2350, has been gentle and orderly without any real panic and Friday's reaction to the strong employment report did, at least initially, trigger a short term Buy signal and there is a short line of cash-build up and the possibility of a small T which if confirmed during the next days would project highs towards the end of the month. This will be confirmed IF the T volume oscillator continues upwards and cuts the descending cash-build up line from the oscillator's recent highs.

As you can see there is also a longer line of cash-build up going back to the oscillator's peak at 72 on the 15 November and when the oscillator does cut this line (probably after a significant low yet to be seen) we will be able to declare another large T structure.

We watch the oscillator for clues, but we use price as the leading indicator.

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S/T Buy Signal at 2375, but…

An S/T BUY Signal triggered in early trade at 2375, but weakened by the pop and drop at the descending resistance line, followed by a Buy it back push into the close. Also characteristic chopshop behaviour that seems to occur when the market is within the mid-channel area.

A clean exit from the short term descending trend would have been more favorable to the buy signal, and the T volume oscillator requires further follow through to establish the new small possible T structure.

Chart of S&P 500 for 13 March 2017

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Mid-Channel dagger

A bullish rejection from the mid-channel area potentially setting up the possibility of a small T if yesterday turns out to be a low.

Momentum slowing and an OSC Oscillator Sell Signal will occur today.
Osc signals are a lagging momentum indicator and suggest that it is unlikely that we will see significantly higher new highs if we do rally.

I have drawn in the possible new T which will not be activated unless we actually get a Buy Signal and note that it does syncronise with the scheduled upcoming pulse and echo cycle highs.

Keep an eye on the T volume oscillator for signs of life, and allow price to be the leading indicator for commitment.

Chart of S&P 500 for 10 March 2017

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.