A navigation system for trading the S&P500 index
A gap down and choppy grind sideways holding and closing above support.
The current Buy Signal is still active.
No CommentsA gap up open and a visit to the 2742 level initiates a gradual decline in-line with the new T structure's projection for a high. Further consolidation and a pause may be necessary to let off some of the pressure from the rapid move off the recent low.
Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsWelcome to the Trading the Line Special Report.
I do apologise, it has been rather a long time since my last free report.
On the edge of a recovery , maybe. Let's recap.
On 18 April the market succumbed to the declining resistance angle from the January and March highs and was forced to re-test the bounce from the April lows. It seems that each drop towards the 2600 level was met with an increasingly bullish response.
On the 04 May the market rapidly moved higher from a touch of the 200 day moving average and triggered an S/T Buy Signal at 2649 that is still active today some 75 points higher.
The S/T system is my proprietary price based system that requires the market to prove itself by moving beyond a particular level. The system then runs a cover stop level under the market until price performance deteriorates significantly. This system does not capture the exact turns in the market but captures the meat of the moves. It has performed particularly well under the stresses of the recent volatile market, keeping us informed of the general direction of the market.
The thrust on 04 May provided an early warning of a change in the market structure as the T volume oscillator – an indicator that descibes the market's internal rate of change of buying or selling pressure – moved upwards through the recent declining trend-line or cash-build up line and defined a new T structure. This new T structure utilises the selling since the most recent high on 18 April and projects the next highs today, on the 14 May and a more important high on 18 May, with the possibility of further waves beyond.
So, as the market makes a relative new high and hints at the possibility of further recovery, the question on every trader's mind is – is this just a bounce before the bearish action continues, or has the market finally returned to its previous calm bullish discovery of new all time highs.
Let's take a look.
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The market has moved up through and beyond the declining angles from the January highs, and we can see that the oscillators are displaying relatively bullish behaviour at the most recent low in comparioson to the previous lows, suggesting that the bearish pressure has been steadily reducing.
The Osc oscillator in the chart above is a momentum indicator which of course lags the market but is now moving up strongly, suggesting that there is strong upward momentum behind this move.
The T volume oscillator in the chart below is an indication of overall buying or selling pressure as it measures the rate of change of advancing vs. declining stocks in the NYSE as a whole. The blue line is the readings as is, and the red line is an adjustment to take into account an anomaly that occured at March options expiration due to some very heavy buying back of hedges. Both versions look bullish, displaying a series of higher lows and a general cash-build up since the oscillator high on 19 December.
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The DB (double bottom) structure centred inbetween the February and April lows has generally been bearish, projecting a series of lower highs. At some point these type of structures collapse into a final low or morph into a larger structure. The most recent projection for a high from the DB structure was 07 May and as the market is now moving above that low, we can see that the DB structure is turning bullish or losing its negative influence.
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The weekly chart above shows that the market is still holding a long-term trend line rising from the February 2016 low, as it continues to absorb and digest the breakaway move into the January 2018 high. For now, primary support is holding, with the possibility that a later re-test of the major support area may still be necessary.
I am still seeing some interesting comparisons between the 2015-2016 bearish phase and 2018 where the important breakaway move requires re-testing of earlier support lines to consolidate the market's advance, in effect the building of a large T structure. Notice also that important resistance still resides at about 2800 and may of course be the current target.
2018 continues to bring with it some very exciting trading and a range that is far beyond the experience of recent years. We should expect it to continue and trade accordingly. This is a Brave New World.
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Regardless of whether the market can sustain its current advance or whether another, perhaps deeper, low is ahead of us, the simplicity of the proprietary price based S/T Signalling System continues to keep us on the correct side of the market, providing a timely Buy signal and a green light, for now.
If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.
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Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsAnother impressive move upwards through the previous high and potentially out of the declining resistance.
Market now displaying some similar characteristics as at the previous recent highs – overbought and perhaps over-stretched and very low put/call ratios – but also showing some bullish divergences with those highs.
An echo high is scheduled for today, and the new T structure projects into early and late next week. The volume oscillator indicates strong breadth and supports the projections for highs with the increasing possibility that the new T structure is larger than currently drawn.
This is looking more and more like a recovery – how the market performs at the next pullback (whenever that occurs) will be revealing.
Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsWhat is Above is Within … the Circumference is Within, Without is formed the Selfish Center, and the Circumference still expands going forward to Eternity.
William Blake, Jerusalem: The Emanation of the Giant Albion, 1804
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An impressive move upwards above the important pivot, and into the upper area of the recent triangulation as the market challenges recent resistance.
Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsA choppy and mostly downward day with a spike high at 2676 and a spike low at 2655, and a positive finish.
Market finding important support and working away at the pivot.
A weak Osc oscillator momentum Buy Signal.
Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsA gap up and grind into the resistance of 2681-3, a flush down into 2665 and a bounce into the close.
Something for everyone.
Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsHodie
aperuit nobis
clausa porta
quod serpens in muliere
suffocavit,
unde lucet in aurora
flos de Virgine Maria.
Today
was opened unto us
a shut-up gate.
For the serpent drew it tight,
in woman choked –
yet from it gleams within the dawn
the Virgin Mary’s flower.
Hodio apercuit nobis, Psalm antiphon for the Virgin by Hildegard of Bingen, c. 1163-1175
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An S/T Buy Signal at 2649 as the market takes another quick look at 2615 (the 200 day moving average) and moves rapidly higher.
A move up above the recent declining resistance line and (perhaps) a sign that the market is now able to move higher.
And with a very strong upward move in the T volume oscillator, it appears that a new T structure is emerging.
Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsMay the Force be with you
Star Wars, 1977, Dir: George Lucas
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Another Sell Signal recovery as the market takes another look at the 200 day moving average.
S/T SELL Signal still active but position neutral, for now.
Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsMan has gone out to explore other worlds and other civilizations without having explored his own labyrinth of dark passages and secret chambers, and without finding what lies behind doorways that he himself has sealed.
Stanisław Lem, Solaris, 1961
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Market rollsover after the FED announcement initiating a Sell Signal at 2650 in a similar reaction to the previous announcement on 21 March. Continuing the theme of declining resistance to price and selling of strength.
Be prepared for whatever is coming next, and trade with confidence:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No Comments