Trading the Line

Looking for a TOP?

Lots of negative signals creeping into the market.

Friday's expiration day relief rally was to be expected with lots of bears trying to take advantage of the drop on thursday and the market makers ensuring that as few as possible of the puts employed were profitable.
A classic bear trap.

Steve Rushton July 20, 2014No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

Sell Signal at 1963

With the close below 1963 in late trading today on the airplane news, a Sell Signal occurs.

With options expiration on the following day and because of a steep 'panic' decline into the close it would be pragmatic to wait for an expected bounce in order to get out.

Steve Rushton July 17, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update

grinding higher

Grinding on higher. Unless we get a sharp drop today, then we are good for 1990 early next week.
Oscillator trying to recover.

Steve Rushton July 17, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

target 1990

Short-term continuation buy signal at 1973, and the target for the End of the 2 short-term T structures would now appear to be 1990. Option interest for friday expiration also suggests resistance at 1990 and support at 1950.

The oscillator sell signal remains in place indicating the toppy nature of the market.

Steve Rushton July 15, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update

test the highs?

Will we re-test the recent high at 1985 or not?

Certainly looks possible, late last week we hung on in there and closed just above the support line of 1963 – indicating stabilisation.

My projection is for a grind into a double top or slight new high, before the end of the current T structures take effect.

Steve Rushton July 14, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Oscillator sell signal

An interesting recovery from off the lows yesterday, indicating that the bulls are still wanting to buy the dips.
Can we grind on higher to make the projected peak at 2000?

The oscillator sell signal suggests that the upside is now limited to 1985 or perhaps a stretch to 2000 which may be the surprise for next week?

Expect toppy and choppy though August.

Steve Rushton July 11, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Sell the news ?

Yesterday's Fed induced rally looks like it wasn't enough to prevent the oscillator declining and will most probably create a sell signal today – unless we get a rally of +10 points or so. Unlikely at the moment due to the negative futures (-6), but not out of the question.

An oscillator sell signal isn't necessarily a short signal but does imply that any rallies will not have legs and that it is relatively safe to sell credit spreads above the recent highs.

A move below 1954 sets up a short signal.

Steve Rushton July 10, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Cover at 1968

Short term stop hit at 1968, and closed below, indicating the possibility of a deeper correction.

It looks like we did have a momentum peak on July 3.
Note that momentum peaks are often 65-66 days apart and a re-test will sometimes follow to set up a steeper decline.
If we recover from here I would expect to see a re-test of 1985, perhaps even a strike at 2000 towards the end of next week for July expiration.
Otherwise a decline to 1940 may be on.

Lots of rising support lines in the 1950 area, so benefit of doubt still on.

Steve Rushton July 9, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Warning, maybe

Perhaps a little warning that we may be about to reverse, but still above the lines and a pull-back after last weeks's 'excesses' makes sense. Keep a close eye on developments.

The potential warning is T theory volume oscillator drop below zero and previous low, starting to show lower lows / lack of strength.

However price still looks good, and I think that we still could see 2000 on the S&P's after digesting the move to 1980.

Steve Rushton July 8, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update

independence day

Happy independence day.

Market certainly did as expected and closed at the high of the week.

A nice break up through the R1 and R2 resistance lines showing strength and exuberance.

Steve Rushton July 4, 2014No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

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“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

“There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.”
The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt