Trading the Line

Squeeze

The grind downwards continues and the bollingers contract further. An orderly decline.

But a squeeze is about to occur. Expect a move +/- 50+ points

Maybe the Fed will bring some juice to the market, maybe the Scottish vote.

Although in steady sell mode, Shorting seems to be a risky option and until the 8/21 trigger confirms then I believe that we still may have another shot at new highs.

Steve Rushton September 16, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Stay or go now

A sell short signal may be imminent but is not confirmed yet by an 8/21 trigger. Further downside will trigger

Wednesday and Thursday's recoverys off the mid-point should really have led to more upside. Fridays' action looks like failure of that.

The blue T structure is suggestive of another peak, a recovery into expiration? Perhaps even into end of September.

First moves into the mid-point are often good bullish entries.

Oscillators are now looking weak.

Steve Rushton September 15, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Oscillator Sell Signal

Oscillator gives us a Sell Signal or Sell Warning – which has in the past warned that price may only make a token new high before selling off.

It is important not to think of that as a short signal until we see a confirmation signal such as a move below the mid-point or a short-trigger (8/21 crossover), but does allow us to consider entering an OTM call credit spread as a hedge.

Today's action brings us back within easy strike of the all time high again and yesterdays low held (for now). All good signs that the price structure is now following the split centre (blue).

We should then theoretically grind higher into september 17, pullback into the 23rd, and maybe higher into the 30th.

Steve Rushton September 12, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update

September 11

So we bounced off the mid-point channel and it seems that the gray price T structure is pointing to the lows.

If we get follow through then a move to 2020 for september expiration is possible.

However the oscillator is now on the verge of a Sell Signal and it is likely that it will trigger today.

Price action today could be critical.

Steve Rushton September 11, 2014No Comments

S&P500 signal

S/T stopped at 1992

Stopped out again on the S/T position for a small loss. (-6)

Challenging the mid-point at 1985 so a great place to bounce (or die)

The T structure suggests more upside ahead but the oscillator is weakening.

Steve Rushton September 10, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update

walking the line

Another spike down and recovery, and remaining above the lines.
Oscillator still good; volume oscillator pull-back to just below zero; potentially a small diamond lozenge shaped consolidation occurring.

Are we going to get the pop to 2025 that I have been expecting, or is this a fizzle and fail?

Steve Rushton September 9, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update

september start

Now that the T structure is developing it is possible to determine the centre-post more accurately.

The red T structure centres the T on the Oscillator low of July 31st, the grey T structure is from the price low and the blue structure is a split of the 2.

The red T structure does seem to have identified the first peak, in which case we can expect the next peaks to occur on September 9 and 22.

Steve Rushton September 8, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

S/T Buy Signal at 1998

With recovery back above 1995-1998, and confirmed by a close above 2006, the S/T Buy Signal is re-affirmed.

Steve Rushton September 5, 2014No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S/T stop at 1990

Weakness and failure at the opening trigger the S/T stop

Buy Signal at 1931, Stop at 1990 – 59 points.

Steve Rushton September 5, 2014No Comments

S&P500 daily update

toppy?

Slightly surprised by yesterday's selloff. Maybe folks are starting to beleive the negative currency devaluation theories.

I have drawn in an alternative T structure splitting the oscillator bottom and price low, and this may help to explain yesterday's toppy behaviour.

The futures are weak so we may test strong support just below at 1886 and rising. If we don't bounce there then the mid-point and more strong support at 1955.

No panic just yet, this may well be the low risk bullish entrypoint for the next move upwards.

Steve Rushton September 5, 2014No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

More Recommended

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: Annotated Edition

by Jon D. Markman

With new commentary and Insights on the life and times of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous financial speculator of all time–Jesse Livermore. This annotated edition bridges the gap between Edwin Lefevre′s fictionalized account of Livermore′s life and the actual, historical events, places, and people that populate the book. It also describes the variety of trading approaches Livermore used throughout his life and analyzes his psychological development as a trader and the lessons gained through hard experiences.

“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell

“There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.”
The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt