Trading the Line

Tolerance

"Laws alone can not secure freedom of expression; in order that every man present his views without penalty there must be spirit of tolerance in the entire population." – Albert Einstein

Market continues to look very strong, T volume oscillator at 72, Osc very strong, above all of the important averages and holding the steep angle on a par with the Brexit rally. I have indicated a tentative price target of 2225-2245 for this move, which is a fibonacci projection from the thrust.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational & entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton November 16, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

re-cycling

reduce, re-use and re-cycle

The market starting to coil in anticipation of the next move, presumably into November expiration on Friday.

Just getting through the short-term echo high but holding above all of the averages.

A quick drop down to the 55 ema at 2143 would make sense here, but not guarranteed – just enough to get everyone positioned bearishly prior to expiration. Significant open interest at 2150 could be a magnet and if things get ugly a larger magnet at 2120.

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Steve Rushton November 15, 2016No Comments

FREE REPORTS

Echo Low and new T Structure

In the last report I discussed the likelihood of an Echo Low associated with the very large double bottom T structure of January-February 2016 to occur prior to or coinciding with the Election, and I think we can now be sure to say that it has occurred.

Double Bottoms and Echo Lows

Terry Laundry suggested that a double bottom resolves into one large T structure with the 2 major lows combining forces. We place the centre-post or vertical line of the T half-way between the 2 lows, and then draw the left-hand side of the T from the price peak to the centre-post, and this projects the end of the T.

We can see this clearly in the first double bottom of late August- September 2015.

Terry Laundry also pointed out that if you draw the T from the second low this will often project a price low instead of a peak – an Echo Low. (Marked in gray).

Echo Low prior to the Election and a Buy Signal

On 2 November I advised my subscribers that we were close to a bounce, and advised very short term bullish below the Buy Signal level.

On 7 November the market gap-opened above the Buy Signal level indicating the confirmed change of direction and long entry above 2104.

On 8 November I advised protecting the long position with a hedge in case of an adverse reaction to the election.

This significant move up has now confirmed the prescence of a new large T Structure with highs projected for Christmas and New Year and additional 'highs' in January and February.

This is why I use price to confirm the signals and not opinion. Price will get you into the market and ensure that you are not trading against it for very long.

Be prepared.

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Steve Rushton November 14, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Supermoon

Technically a ‘perigee full moon’, the phenomenon occurs when a full moon coincides with the moon being the closest it gets to the Earth on its orbit – and 13-14 November 2016 full moon will be the biggest and brightest in 60 years.

So far the market is holding up and working off its overbought character, with a nice push back up into the weekend.

And looking for an Echo high to occur monday or tuesday.
After that, its possible we need to challenge the 55 ema in a more decisive way.

I have re-drawn the new T structure back one day centre-ing on the oscillator low (0) which was 2 days prior to the price low, and this would explain the sharp selloff from 2182 on thursday.

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Steve Rushton November 12, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Veterans

“Never give in — never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.” – Winston Churchill

Something for everyone yesterday.

It would seem that above the upper bollinger was too much for the market and it quickly sold off from the very short term target of 2180 at the rising Gann line – previous support / now resistance.

Still room for the market to move higher

I have moved the new T structure back one day as the oscillator low was 2 days prior to the price low and this projects the first major target for monday coincidentally just prior to a scheduled Echo peak high. A similar situation occurred after Brexit when the market tested the averages briefly and then resolved to the upside.

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Steve Rushton November 11, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Yes Sir, please Sir!

The market makes a very significant move up as a huge amount of out of the money puts are urgently cashed in, showing that in contrast to the Brexit vote the Trump challenge was well hedged by the major players.

It also shows that the uncertainty of the Election was what was holding the market back. It is after all, a BULL market and will continue to be so until further notice.

A new and very powerful looking T structure emerges with the major projection for the next major peaks from at least the 9 September collapse, and possibly the all time high.

Risk On.

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Steve Rushton November 10, 2016No Comments

S&P500 intraday update

No Panic, Sir!

As I advised this morning prior to the open:

Panic – what panic?

At the moment it is starting to look like the Futures may have seriously over-cooked the panic, and it looks like we will open above 2100.

The Sell trigger level yesterday was 2114, but if we take into account the overnight plunge we can lower that level to 2112.

Afterall we now have some clarity on the future. Looks like no reason to panic.

—

Fantastic move today. I can't imagine that anyone really expected to see the market 20 points up, especially after seeing the market about 70 points down when Hillary conceeded to Donald, as I had breakfast this morning.

Coming up to the upper Bollinger and that seems to be holding us back at the moment and needs pushing up, but importantly we broke through that dreadful descending line, with tremendous force.

The Osc 5,35 makes a Buy Signal and the T volume oscillator in the 30s looking very strong and activating larger sections of the new T structure.

We may need to re-test the important 55 ema but it does look like further gains into mid November for starters followed by a rally into Christmas.

Enjoy your slice of Trump pie!

Steve Rushton November 9, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Trump Tower

On Election day the market noses into the resistance line at 2144, and stops to wait for the result.

We had a short term cycle/pulse high scheduled for 8-9 November which suggested that the market might sell the news at least temporarily.

Oops, futures down very hard on the news of Donald Trump's successful night, triggering a SELL Signal, but have recovered significantly showing that the market was well protected. Initially E-minis bounced at 2028 which corresponds to about 2032 on the S&P500 index – the lower extreme boundary – fine green line on my charts. Keep an eye on that level for future reference as it is now major support and the market may need to go have a look-see at some point.

Watch to see if the previous low at 2083 holds, or not, as the market digests the news and traders re-position. Very large open option positions at 2050 and 2000 may be initial magnets and strong support but the unloading of these positions could also be the tail-wind for a strong recovery. (ie Sell the News and Buy the recovery)

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Steve Rushton November 9, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Just politics

Putting aside the fact that America goes to the polls today.
It is what it is and it doesn't really matter who wins, not in the long run. Sadly, not really.

The market makes a BUY Signal and activates a new small T projecting a first peak on the 16th.
At the moment it looks like a thrust, and if we compare it with BrExit we could be looking at a rally into 2250 (a future long term target).

First we have a short term cycle/pulse high scheduled for 9 November and a another high scheduled for 15 November.

If we can break through the obvious descending resistance line, further arms of the new T will become activated projecting a series of highs in December and even January.

In the meantime we have an election to navigate through and of course it is entirely possible that the market is unhappy with the result.
Take care and hedge accordingly because there will be a lot of orders to fill below the market.

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Steve Rushton November 8, 2016No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S/T BUY Signal at the open

Sometimes the market bounces and fails and then the real bounce starts the next day, with avengeance.

The market roars its approval of Hillary and breezes through resistance and up into the mid-channel area.

A new small T is activated, and we can see that if this breaks through the downward sloping resistance, we have the possibility for a larger T structure and a rally into Christmas and the New Year.

Its just politics, stupid

Steve Rushton November 7, 2016No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 30 July

...

S/T SELL Signal active below 7462 st 7440 on 26 July

COVER Signal below 7522 at 7440 on 17 July

S/T BUY Signal at 7398 on 29 June

S/T SELL Signal active below 7344 on 26 June

COVER Short Signal above 7361 on 25 June

S/T SELL Signal below 7422 on 23 June

COVER Signal below 7452 at 7365 on 23 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7500 on 18 June

COVER Short Signal at 7500 on 18 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7424 on 17 June

COVER Signal at 7454 on 17 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7404 on 11 June

COVER Short Signal at 7337 on 10 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7462 on 05 June

COVER Signal at 7553 on 05 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7586 on 04 June

COVER Signal at 7554 on 03 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 20 May

COVER Signal at 7411 on 15 May

S/T BUY Signal at 6457 on 31 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6398 on 31 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6543 on 26 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6600 at 6620 on 25 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6567 on 25 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Signal at 6590 on 23 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6623 on 23 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6563 at 6600 on 23 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6666 on 18 Mar

COVER Signal at 6693 on 18 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6729 on 16 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6668 at 6698 on 16 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
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It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
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The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
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A meaningless argument among whores.
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The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
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“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
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