S&P500 daily update

OK we lost the potential support at the 1920 level, so we should expect to see some fresh support around 1900 on the S4 line. below that – even more significant support at 1870-1880 on S5.

Previous resistance should now be support. Looking for the possibility of some kind of releif rally into next friday's expiration.

Short term low may be in – indicated by the first ellipse. (re-trace of move from May 15)
and just about holding the support line S3

But potential for a lower low – 2nd ellipse (re-trace of move from April 11

Keep an eye on yesterday's low – 1911.5 – as a line in the sand.

Short-term Buy above 1936, confirmed above 1940.

Looking for a low but perhaps not there just yet

If we can't hold this line at S3, then a drop to 1880 may well be on.

A nice rally off the S3 support line, but didn't make a Buy Signal just yet – so lets see if we stabilise now or whether the market need to find a lower low at S4 or S5.

The ellipse tool is still looking for sideways and downwards, and the T thery volume oscillator is suggesting a few more days of upside, but the 70 day low to high may be suggesting yesterday / today / tomorrow as a top – perhaps a dead cat bounce then.

A tentative Sell Signal yesterday but needs to drop below 1964 and then 1952 to really confirm.

A close above 1982-3 will signal another attempt at 2000.

Can the Fed stage another rally or will global issues get in the way and spark a sell off?

Price remains resilient and above the various rising trendlines except that you could argue that the S1 line from the Feb low is now being violated with the recent action. Perhaps it kissed goodbye yesterday at 1982.

A squeeze is underway and a 'pop' to the upside or a drop to the downside will happen shortly – probably FED induced unless we get major geopolitical news.

Did we get a sell signal?

A weakening market making new highs, a doji day at 1988-1991 followed by a gap down ?

Not quite – as we did bounce off the mid-line at 1974 and held at the Gann line from the February low.

Personally I would expect to see a quick drop to flush out the weak bulls and then a resumption of the grind higher.

All my indicators are suggesting that this is toppy and that we are now due a correction. Perhaps we get a pop-up and sell off to somewhere like 1940.

The chart looks very similar to mid January – a recovery from a momentum peak; market looks ok but then fails the mid-line signalling the sharp drop.

Of course that may not happen and we just grind on higher into August, perhaps in a volatile and choppy way.

Position is Short with a small hedge, and be prepared to roll up the short-position. Upper limit expected for August exp. is 2020, lower limit is currently 1920.

Lots of negative signals creeping into the market.

Friday's expiration day relief rally was to be expected with lots of bears trying to take advantage of the drop on thursday and the market makers ensuring that as few as possible of the puts employed were profitable.
A classic bear trap.