S&P500 daily update

47 Ronin

"The Way of the Samurai is found in death. Meditation on inevitable death should be performed daily. Every day when one's body and mind are at peace, one should meditate upon being ripped apart by arrows, rifles, spears, and swords. Being carried away by surging waves. Being thrown into the midst of a great fire. Being struck by lightning, being shaken to death by a great earthquake. Falling from thousand-foot cliffs, dying of disease, or committing seppuku at the death of one's master. And every day, without fail, one should consider himself as dead. This is the substance of the Way of the Samurai."

– from 'Hagakure, The Book of the Samurai', Yamamoto Ttsunetomo, used in the film 'Ghost Dog', 1999, Dir: Jim Jarmush

Open up above the doji pause day and push to the next level, and reaching the next long trend line at 2275.

Today of course we have the much anticipated Fed decision on interest rates.

And I wonder if Janet will soothe the market, or just simply placate it.

And we have reached the end of a major arm of the T structure, indicating a pause in buying power, and so we may well see some selling now. Keep your eyes on the wheel.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational & entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton December 14, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Lucy’s Feast

Market takes a pause just after the recent echo high, and on the 2255-60 gann resistance line as we wait for the Fed.
2nd major arm of T structure completes today.

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Steve Rushton December 13, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Dynamite

Dynamite was invented by Alfred Nobel and was the first safely manageable explosive stronger than black powder. Nobel obtained patents for his invention in England on 7 May 1867, in Sweden on 19 October 1867. After its introduction, dynamite rapidly gained wide-scale use as a safe alternative to black powder and nitroglycerin. Nobel tightly controlled the patents, and unlicensed duplicating companies were quickly shut down.
Unbeknownst to his family, friends or colleagues, Alfred Nobel left most of his wealth in trust, in order to fund the awards that would become known as the Nobel Prizes and 10 December is now known as Alfred Nobel Day in Sweden.
[Wikipedia]

A strong finish to a relentless week will probably leave most traders stunned.
I certainly had caution signals flashing since the market moved outside of its bollinger bands at 2230 on wednesday (unusual and unstable behaviour).
But price is the leading indicator and we should allow price to determine our position direction whilst adjusting position size according to the perceived risk.

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Steve Rushton December 10, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Are we there yet ?

Quite possibly a short term peak on the Echo high but more substantial peaks are scheduled for the 13th and the 27th December from looking at the T structure. New Year could be a major high because it is projected from where the previous (Brexit) T structure starts to collapse and if you look back at the Brexit T Structure that is what happened then.

A series of further highs are projected for January and February but these may not necessarily be higher highs, as we may need some larger pullbacks inbetween.

It looks to me that the market is heading towards the long term trend line currently at 2275, 2285 by New Year, and that Goldman's 2400 target for the 1st quarter of 2017 now dosent seem unacheivable.

In the meantime, and whilst everyone gets so excited about a Dow Jones Buy Signal, we have an extremely overbought and potentially dangerous situation with some very mixed signals.

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Steve Rushton December 9, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Immaculate conception

A parabolic move, so it looks like Goldman was right (haha).
Price target of 2225-2245 acheived, all of a sudden and begs the question – what's next?
Notice the series of rising lines – Gann projections – from previous highs and these are potential resistance and target lines.

Market cut through the previous resistance line like butter and also breezed through the 2nd one, presenting the next as possible targets if this move is sustained. The 3rd line is 2256+ and the 4th is 2272+.

Market is now well above the upper bollinger line which is unusual and potentially unstable behaviour.
Remember the rapid sell off last time that happened.

We are in the window for the next Echo high sheduled for today but they are +/- one day.

There is an Arms sell warning in place and yesterday the equity Put call ratio reached a level well below that associated with complacency and market tops and therefore is also indicative of too many bulls in town.

This doesn't mean that the market will go straight back down, but watch out below when the music stops…

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Steve Rushton December 8, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Pearl

Market rallying back towards resistance and looking to make a new all time high on the next Echo high scheduled for today / tomorrow, with an arm of the T structure also scheduled for today / tomorrow, and followed by a more significant arm of the T structure on December 13.
Significant resistance at 2220-2, low arms and complacency signalling a potential Sell warning.

Perhaps we will see an knee jerk reaction to whatever the Fed tells the market next week, or some whispers prior.

The bigger picture is up but expect some choppiness ahead.

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Steve Rushton December 7, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Continuation Buy Signal at 2202

Market popped up above the Buy Signal line triggering an S/T continuation signal with the bounce from the breakout line.

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Steve Rushton December 6, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Playing catch up

Market still in Warning phase as each rally attempt has been met with selling and keeping within the downward channel, but sitting right on the breakout level. Obviously waiting for the next catalyst, and playing catch up…

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Steve Rushton December 3, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Roll into December

"He who every morning plans the transaction of the day and follows out that plan, carries a thread that will guide him through the maze of the most busy life. But where no plan is laid, where the disposal of time is surrendered merely to the chance of incidence, chaos will soon reign."
– Victor Hugo

And so we can see that the expectation of an Echo high at the 2nd major arm of the T structure on Black Friday was correct, and although we had a couple of false starts and a re-test of the high, yesterday's action confirmed the end of the first move of the Trump rally.

We can now expect the market to be somewhat choppy as it is a reflection of the late September / early October period, and wait for the market to work off its over bullish character.

As the market is still in a strong uptrend I do not recommend shorting it (yet).

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Steve Rushton December 2, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Roll ?

World AIDS Day

“I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something. And because I cannot do everything, I will not refuse to do the something that I can do.”
– Edward Everett Hale

Early strength fades for the 3rd day in a row, 2210 seems to have been too much for the market and the market dumps into the close, but holds onto the Buy Signal for now.

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Steve Rushton December 1, 2016No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal active below 7462 st 7440 on 17 July

COVER Signal below 7522 at 7440 on 17 July

S/T BUY Signal at 7398 on 29 June

S/T SELL Signal active below 7344 on 26 June

COVER Short Signal above 7361 on 25 June

S/T SELL Signal below 7422 on 23 June

COVER Signal below 7452 at 7365 on 23 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7500 on 18 June

COVER Short Signal at 7500 on 18 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7424 on 17 June

COVER Signal at 7454 on 17 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7404 on 11 June

COVER Short Signal at 7337 on 10 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7462 on 05 June

COVER Signal at 7553 on 05 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7586 on 04 June

COVER Signal at 7554 on 03 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 20 May

COVER Signal at 7411 on 15 May

S/T BUY Signal at 6457 on 31 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6398 on 31 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6543 on 26 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6600 at 6620 on 25 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6567 on 25 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Signal at 6590 on 23 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6623 on 23 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6563 at 6600 on 23 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6666 on 18 Mar

COVER Signal at 6693 on 18 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6729 on 16 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6668 at 6698 on 16 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
Nick Cave 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

>“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
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The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
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The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt