S&P500 daily update - Trading the Line

Trump Tower

On Election day the market noses into the resistance line at 2144, and stops to wait for the result.

We had a short term cycle/pulse high scheduled for 8-9 November which suggested that the market might sell the news at least temporarily.

Oops, futures down very hard on the news of Donald Trump's successful night, triggering a SELL Signal, but have recovered significantly showing that the market was well protected. Initially E-minis bounced at 2028 which corresponds to about 2032 on the S&P500 index – the lower extreme boundary – fine green line on my charts. Keep an eye on that level for future reference as it is now major support and the market may need to go have a look-see at some point.

Watch to see if the previous low at 2083 holds, or not, as the market digests the news and traders re-position. Very large open option positions at 2050 and 2000 may be initial magnets and strong support but the unloading of these positions could also be the tail-wind for a strong recovery. (ie Sell the News and Buy the recovery)

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational & entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton November 9, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Just politics

Putting aside the fact that America goes to the polls today.
It is what it is and it doesn't really matter who wins, not in the long run. Sadly, not really.

The market makes a BUY Signal and activates a new small T projecting a first peak on the 16th.
At the moment it looks like a thrust, and if we compare it with BrExit we could be looking at a rally into 2250 (a future long term target).

First we have a short term cycle/pulse high scheduled for 9 November and a another high scheduled for 15 November.

If we can break through the obvious descending resistance line, further arms of the new T will become activated projecting a series of highs in December and even January.

In the meantime we have an election to navigate through and of course it is entirely possible that the market is unhappy with the result.
Take care and hedge accordingly because there will be a lot of orders to fill below the market.

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Steve Rushton November 8, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Trump card

Nice very short term bounce but no Buy Signal (yet)

Friday's action was a great example of why the S/T Buy level is somewhat above the market during declines – and why I think at below that level the buying is very speculative and for aggressive traders only.

We can see that the market did not get above 2100 and resumed its selling into the close, indicating that the market has a 'Risk-Off' Attitude.

We are currently sitting at the 200 day moving average – the line in the sand – and 9 days down in a row.

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Steve Rushton November 7, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Gunpowder

“Remember remember the fifth of November
Gunpowder, treason and plot.
I see no reason why gunpowder, treason
Should ever be forgot…”

― Guy Fawkes

Lots of good reasons for a bounce here… , and a possible rally back into resistance, but a break lower is certainly possible.
And still plenty of time left for fireworks and depth charges associated with the election.

Significant risk indicated by SKEW

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Steve Rushton November 4, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Just because

Continuation Sell Signal at 2107 yesterday with target of at least the prior low which was acheived.

The 2pm bounce prompted a cover signal (just in case), but the short term Sell Signal remains active.

The market is ready to bounce at a moments notice, with several indicators flashing green, but I still think we will touch the lower rising Gann line currently at 2083 sooner or later.

Moving into or towards a low…

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Steve Rushton November 3, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

All Souls

Market starting to factor in the possibility of a trump card next week, which is something I've been thinking might have been discounted (a bit like Brexit was). And that might really rattle the markets…

Anyway a short-term target was acheived with the trip down to 2100 and it was sensible place to take some profits.
I'm still eyeing 2180-85 for a more sustainable low and significant bull market support.

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Steve Rushton November 2, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

All saints drift

Not much trickery yesterday, but holding onto horizontal support as we drift sideways and downwards

Osc 5,35 oscillator turns negative, T volume oscillator rises slightly.

Still looking for a final low in this drift and thinking that we may need a visit to the lower rising Gann support line, currently in the 2080s.

Also noting that there are 2 cycle or pulse highs projected for approx 9 and 15 November.

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Steve Rushton November 1, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

All Hallows’ Eve

Market turns down into the end of last week, in-line with the T structure associated with the September 14 low which has a bearish formation of lower highs.

I'm assuming that the expiration of the larger red T structure associated with the Brexit low is pushing this one down and will do so until a clear 'low' is in place for a new T structure.

And now at a triple low, Does the market want to play Trick or Treat ?

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Steve Rushton October 30, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Tentatively short

Market possibly breaking down but wouldn't be surprised to see it it pop back up into the resistance line.

Market continuing to correct in time rather than price.

Looks like the real correction has been going on in long bonds.

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Steve Rushton October 28, 2016No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Strange Days

People are strange when you're a stranger
Faces look ugly when you're alone
Women seem wicked when you're unwanted
Streets are uneven when you're down

The Doors, 1967

Another strange day, oscillating between Buy and Sell levels and showing no conviction either way.

Still time for a 'rally' into Halloween and the end of the month, but the market doesn't appear to be interested…

Lack of Buying Power associated with end of red T Structure continues, but no catalyst for a sell off.

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Steve Rushton October 27, 2016No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T BUY Signal at 7586 on 04 June

COVER Signal at 7554 on 03 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 20 May

COVER Signal at 7411 on 15 May

S/T BUY Signal at 6457 on 31 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6398 on 31 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6543 on 26 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6600 at 6620 on 25 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6567 on 25 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Signal at 6590 on 23 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6623 on 23 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6563 at 6600 on 23 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6666 on 18 Mar

COVER Signal at 6693 on 18 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6729 on 16 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6668 at 6698 on 16 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
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The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
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