S&P500 daily update

“I have persecuted its native inhabitants beyond all reason. Whether gentle or simple, I have cruelly oppressed them; many I unjustly inherited; Innumerable multitudes, especially in the county of York, perished through me by famine or the sword."
– William the Conqueror

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The market continues to gently push against the rising resistance in a continuation of the low volatility drift higher whilst momentum and breadth fade – suggesting that we may be entering a sideways distribution phase prior to a possible decline, most probably towards the end of the current T structure.

However, the current indications are that any decline will be relatively shallow and that the current T structure is potentially larger and could draw strength from earlier declines than drawn.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

"God is not pleased. We have enemies of the faith in the kingdom".

On Friday 13 October, 1307, numerous Knights Templar were arrested and coerced into false confessions of heresy – one of the origins of the superstition surrounding Friday the 13th.

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Market opens lower in-line with yesterday's short term peak projection from the T structure, takes a little looks-see at the all time high and re-traces.

Still very much within the recent sideways funk and a tight range that might be expected to expand a little as the market plays wait up / catch up.

T volume oscillator drops below zero and flashes a warning signal and momentum fades a little more.

The pulse high scheduled for today could certainly push the market down some but another arm of the T structure projects a high for Monday and this continues to suggest sideways and upwards until we reach a more defined peak.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

The market continues to edge higher into uncharted territory in-line with the next arm of the current T structure.

Still sitting at or just below the rising resistance line projected from the 1 March peak.

There is little resistance above this level and should it proceed it is probably a quick move to 2600 – site of the upper extreme of the channel. This would certainly surprise many participants.

There are some indications of deceleration in momentum and breadth and so perhaps a more likely outlook is a continued low volatility grind sideways with an upwards bias.

Another pulse high is scheduled for Friday and another peak is projected by the T structure for Monday.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Market opens up and briefly tests a token new high on the rising resistance line from the 1 March peak.

The OSC oscillator starts to flatten off and the T volume oscillator lifts back above zero.

The outlook continues, for now, to be a sideways grind with an upwards bias and a consolidation within an upper range as the market assimilates the recent price discovery.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

The second pulse high initiates a little more selling, and this could now be setting up a sideways move as the market finds a little resistance at the 2550 mark.

Although momentum remains strong, the T volume oscillator drops down to the zero level – an inflection point in breadth and an indication that we may have seen a short-term peak.

Still, this helps to relieve some of the pressure on price and there is plenty of rising support below.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

A slight pullback from the highs helps to release some of the pressure, in-line with the thursday's pulse high and Friday's arm of the T structure.

Monday brings another pulse high, followed quickly by another arm of the T structure and several more highs that are projected by the June declines. This is suggestative of a continued choppy grind higher or sideways move ahead.

The oscillators continue to be strong and we should expect to see at least one or two 'tests' of the recent strength before this advance is completed.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Yesterday's high becomes today's low as the market stretches higher with barely a pullback in sight. This is catch up quick behaviour as the market proceeds higher without hanging around waiting for the bystanders, and is, I suspect, playing noodles with those insisting on selling short because 'we must have reached a top'.

We may find some resistance here – on the rising line from the 1 March peak – but really there is no fundamental reason why the market should stop here, and the upper extreme* reaches of the channel are now looking very attractive. Note that the February move into the 1 March peak was a 100 point near vertical move into the upper extreme* of the channel where it stopped.

In the meantime we have a projection for a high today from the large T structure, but this is just the first in a series of several that I am projecting from the June declines. This suggests a continued grind higher with perhaps a few pauses or pullbacks until we see a point of exhaustion or an important target is acheived.

*The upper & lower extremes of the channel are my approximation of Terry Laundry's proprietary Energy channel.
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Be prepared for whatever comes next:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Please, release me, let me go,
For I don't love you anymore.
To waste our lives would be a sin,
Release me and let me love again.

– Dominic Miller / Gordon Sumner, 1949

6 days straight up, is there some more? (…probably)

Today is the first of a series of scheduled pulse highs and tomorrow is another arm of the T structure with further peaks projected in the weeks ahead.

A pause hereabouts would help to release some of the pressure, but all indicators are pointing up.

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

If I could stay, then the night would give you up.
Stay, and the day would keep its trust.
Stay, and the night would be enough.

Faraway, so close
Up with the static and the radio.
With satellite television
You can go anywhere:
Miami, New Orleans
London, Belfast and Berlin.

– U2, Stay (Faraway, so close), 1993

Another high as the bull continues to raise its horns and advance.

All indications pointing up, and now looking similar to the February move which was a 5 day 50 point straight up break outside the bollingers type move and was followed by as much again into the eventual peak. Just a thought and for a possible comparison but that would place the upper extreme of the channel – 2580-2600 – well within range.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Zooropa… better by design
Zooropa… fly the friendly skies
Through appliance of science
We've got that ring of confidence…

And I have no compass
And I have no map
And I have no reasons
No reasons to get back

And I have no religion
And I don't know what's what
And I don't know the limit
The limit of what we've got

– U2, Zooropa, 1993

The market continues to climb towards the upper extreme range of the channel, now in-line with the rising line from March 15.

Although rather overstretched now, the oscillators are suggesting further.

… and over in Zooropa, Germany celebrates its re-unification with the Dax up an impressive 7% in the last month.

I mention the Dax because it helps to contextualise this advance which many seem to be in disbelief of. It seems likely that many traders were incorrectly positioned after the August peaks and expected to see some further lows in September and October. The continued bearish chatter and disbelief in this bull market will almost certainly continue to fuel higher prices as more and more traders are forced to cover short positions and this in itself could propel the market to further significantly higher levels.

Remember that I have pointed out that the market was starting to break through some extremely long resistance lines on the weekly chart – in the recent Free Report. Lines that originate from previous bull markets tops. It seems that we are progressing through these levels and it now seems that 2400 to 2500 may be long term support levels moving forward. At the same time the market started to activate the very long cash build up line – potentially setting up a much larger T structure. We may need to get used to the idea that the market was previously rather 'cheap' and now it is 'less cheap', rather than over-priced.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.