Trading the Line Free Report

2 weeks after the September 9 plunge, I thought it would be interesting to re-cap.

Chart of S&P500 for 25 September 2016

The market made a series of lows at an obvious support level – the 2015 high – and then made a tentative buy signal prior to the recent Fed statement. A small T was formed and confirmed by the oscillator and we are now back filling the gap.

The small T 'conveniently' projects a peak at the same time as the large Red T structure – on about October 17. (Not necessarily a new high.)

Unfortunately, 2 short-term cycle highs are scheduled for tomorrow (+/- 2 days), and this coincides with the first arm of the current small T structure.

It is possible that the recent small T has a centre 1 or 2 days earlier due to the discrepancy between the price and the oscillator lows – therefore thursday's peak at 2180 might be an important one.

Keep an eye on the rising support lines from the February and June lows for confirmation of the trend.

Be prepared.

For more detailed analysis and ongoing analysis of the developments in the S&P index on a daily basis, please Sign up for my daily Alerts & Observations

 

Trading the Line Weekend Report – Something gives indeed

Although I have made my readers aware that an outsized move might be about to occur due to the repeated warnings from breadth, momentum, Arms, Put/Call ratios etc, the ferocity of Friday's move and the distinct lack of any buying power was interesting to me because it made me think I must have 'missed' something.

If you have been following my daily updates you will know that I was expecting a short-term high on about 31 August or 1 September to coincide with the major arm of the red T structure.

Something was holding up the market, and that something is often a longer range T structure.

And so back to the charts and zooming out:

Chart of S&P500 for 11 September 2016

What we can see is that the combination of 3 large T structures have been working together, to produce the recent rally into the mid July highs. And that there is, I believe, a direct correlation between the May high in 2015, the centre of the very large T structure of the January 2016 collapse, and Friday's 50 point drop.

So of course, the question on everyone's mind is 'what's next?'

The red T structure is still active and points to a recovery to highs (not necessarily new highs) in the mid-October time after perhaps some volatile days in the coming weeks.

Strong support exists just below at 2105-10.

And a new large T structure is under construction…

Be prepared.

For more detailed analysis and ongoing analysis of the developments in the S&P index on a daily basis, please Sign up for my daily Alerts & Observations