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All numbers refer to SPX

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Volatile action at new all time highs with a look high, some heavy selling and a recovery.

On 14 October the market makes another S/T Buy Signal (above 4374) and proceeds rapidly higher into the next important projection for a high achieved on 21 October.

After an extensive period of consolidation the recent move looks like another important thrust higher.

Should we expect further highs?

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Very strong price action and a rapid recovery of all of September's decline would suggest a continued grind higher with marking out of the higher range, profit-taking, re-cycling and buying of the dip into price exhaustion before the next consolidation phase.

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The T volume oscillator ¹ made a Buy Signal on 05-06 October with the rise in the oscillator above the declining cash build up line² of the oscillator, and this was an early warning that the market was preparing for a recovery, displaying signs of bullish divergence with a lower low in price and a higher low in the oscillator.

The oscillator projects strength from the previous oscillator highs into the next series of highs via the oscillator lows, and the price highs project strength from the previous price highs into the next series of price highs via the price lows. These projections are the T structures which project highs currently and in the next few days, and then further out into mid November.

We should therefore watch for deterioration in the oscillator, relative to price, as the market moves into the projections for highs.

¹ The T volume oscillator is an indication of Buying Power within the market as a whole
² The cash build-up line is a declining line drawn above a series of lower highs made in the oscillator.

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In the weekly chart, we can see that price continues to be strong with a bounce off the 4300 area and a re-test of the previous all time high – a new small T which may of course become a continuation of the large structure.

If the large structure centered at the March 2020 low is still larger, we can project the next major highs for early January, early April and mid-late May.

The rising line under the recent lows would be an important support line, and a significant break would be a serious warning.

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The monthly chart shows the high in late August / early September which was in-line with the projection for a high from the large T Structure centered at the March 2020 low. However something is pushing the market higher and the next projections from the large structures is into March and May of 2022.

Unless we see a rapid decline from this month's recovery we should expect consolidation and further highs in due course.

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2021 continues with a range that has become increasingly expansive since the move above 2500. With price above 4500 we can only assume that this will continue. This is a Brave New World and we should trade accordingly.

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Regardless of whether the market can continue higher or whether significant lows are ahead of us, the simplicity of the proprietary price based S/T Signalling System will continue to keep us on the correct side of the market, with price currently back on a Buy Signal since moving above 4474 on 14 October 2021.

If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.

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To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intra-day alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area, Explanatory Notes (pdf) for all of the concepts discussed, and Notes on Day Trading (pdf)

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

All numbers refer to SPX

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Market continuing to mark out the new higher range into the labor day holiday.

Buy Signal continues.

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A second day of similar action at the new high, marking out the range and processing the price high with another choppy grind towards the high. Price action continues to be bullish but slightly hesitant and hinting at the possibility of a decline but without any fundamental change.

At, or near the next projection for a high and still in-line with the new T structure with initial highs projected from the recent price highs for 23 August, and 30 August (acheived), followed by early September, and with full potential into mid September.

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The T volume oscillator ¹ made a renewed Buy Signal on 23-24 August with a rise upwards through the cash build up line ² confirming the new active T structure emerging from the 19 August low with projections for highs from the previous oscillator and price highs for 25 August and 23 August repectively (acheived), and beyond into late August and with full potential into early September.

¹ The T volume oscillator is an indication of Buying Power within the market as a whole
² The cash build-up line is a declining line drawn above a series of lower highs made in the oscillator.

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In the weekly chart, we can see that price continues to be strong within the rising channel established over the past year, but it is near the upper edge of the channel and perhaps over-extended as it is again outside of the bollinger bands and this might eventually be setting up a snap-back towards the mean.

The large structure, centered at the March 2020 low projected strength into Mid July and early August, with another projection into perhaps a more important high for mid September 2021, projected from the high in September 2018.

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The monthly chart continues to look excessive but very strong.

The current large structures project highs for August and/or for September 2021 and possibly longer into March and/or May 2022.

We should therefore be prepared for a change in direction (or consolidation) to occur soon.

…

2021 continues with a range that has become increasingly expansive since the move above 2500. With price above 4400 we can only assume that this will continue. This is a Brave New World and we should trade accordingly.

–

Regardless of whether the market can continue higher or whether significant lows are ahead of us, the simplicity of the proprietary price based S/T Signalling System will continue to keep us on the correct side of the market, with price currently back on a Buy Signal since moving above 4437 on 20 August 2021.

If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.

–

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intra-day alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area, Explanatory Notes (pdf) for all of the concepts discussed, and Notes on Day Trading (pdf)

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

All numbers refer to SPX

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Mercy mountain crevices hold treasures buried deep
A blizzard or rain can`t wash any memories that you keep
I just came in on the banana boat, got born only yesterday
Came down through the stars, I landed from Mars
Made my way through the Milky Way

Ian Brown, Bubbles, 2001

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A quick FED induced taper tantrum is met with strong buying (again) and a push back above 4400 with a new S/T Buy Signal triggered above 4437.

More of the same or something different?

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A grind higher into 4468 on 16 August – just beyond a projection for a high from the recent T structure and with warnings flashing from deterioration in breadth – is met with volatility, some strong selling and a rescue operation on 17 August. More selling sees strong buying at the open gap at 4367 and a rapid recovery – 2 days down and 2 days up.

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The T volume oscillator ¹ made a Buy Signal on 21 July with a rise upwards through the cash build up line ² confirming the recent T structure emerging from the 19 July low with projections for highs from the previous oscillator and price highs for 09 August and 13 August repectively, and perhaps beyond with full potential into late August.

The lack lustre oscillator indicated profit-taking going on in the back ground, and made the market vulnerable to a swift decline.

The v shaped recovery in the oscillator and price – so far – indicates that there is now a new small T or perhaps a larger T structure emerging from the 18 August low, but it is not yet fully confirmed.

A small T would suggest strength into a recovery high early this week and a subsequent collapse – re-test the low or below, and a new T structure would hold onto the gains, consolidate and draw strength from the previous highs into the longer projections for highs – perhaps into early September.

¹ The T volume oscillator is an indication of Buying Power within the market as a whole
² The cash build-up line is a declining line drawn above a series of lower highs made in the oscillator.

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In the weekly chart above, we can see that price continues to be strong within the rising channel established over the past year, Although the momentum oscillator was declining slightly and flashing a warning, price has recovered from each of the probes lower, building support for higher prices.

The large structure, centered at the March 2020 low projected strength into Mid July and early August, with another projection into perhaps a more important high for mid September 2021, projected from the high in September 2018.

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The monthly chart continues to look excessive but the market continues higher beyond the last projection for a major high from the Mega T structure, which now looks like it completed with the declines in February 2020 and September 2020.

The current large structures project highs for August and/or for September 2021 and possibly longer into March and/or May 2022.

We should therefore be prepared for a change in direction to occur soon.

…

2021 continues with a range that has become increasingly expansive since the move above 2500. With price above 4400 we can only assume that this will continue. This is a Brave New World and we should trade accordingly.

–

Regardless of whether the market can continue higher or whether significant lows are ahead of us, the simplicity of the proprietary price based S/T Signalling System will continue to keep us on the correct side of the market, with price currently back on a Buy Signal since moving above 4437 on 20 August 2021.

If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.

–

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intra-day alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area, Explanatory Notes (pdf) for all of the concepts discussed, and Notes on Day Trading (pdf)

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

All numbers refer to SPX

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As a young boy, daddy used to tell me stories
"Do your thing my son, the world is yours
The winds of fury will lead to paths of glory
Take it in your stride my son, the world is yours"

Ian Brown, The World is Yours, 2007

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From strong selling on Monday back to new all time highs on Friday with a four day thrust higher.

The winds of fury will lead to paths of glory…

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A gap down well below the Sell Signal level (4300) on 19 July making short entry difficult and high risk is quickly reversed with an S/T Buy Signal on 20 July at 4331 (unconfirmed at the close) and a continuation higher on 21 July above 4332 making a second S/T Buy Signal at 4340.

A fast move higher, making new all time highs with an impressive and very rapid move from low to new high. Some relative weakness in the oscillators but it's really difficult to argue with the price action.

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The T volume oscillator ¹ made a Buy Signal on 21 July with a rise upwards through the cash build up line ² confirming the new T structure emerging from the recent low with projections for highs from the previous oscillator and price highs for late July and early August, perhaps beyond.

¹ The T volume oscillator is an indication of Buying Power within the market as a whole
² The cash build-up line is a declining line drawn above a series of lower highs made in the oscillator.

Save the image to your desktop to view a larger version

In the weekly chart above, we can see that price continues to be strong within the rising channel established over the past year, The oscillator was declining and flashing a warning of the expected weakness mid July but this appears to have been quickly resolved with the rapid reversal from 4233, which now looks like important support.

The large structure, centered at the March 2020 low projected strength into Mid July and now possibly into Mid September.

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The monthly chart continues to look excessive but the market continues higher beyond the projection for a major high from the Mega T structure, which now looks like it completed with the declines in February 2020 and September 2020.

The current large structures project highs for August and/or for September 2021 and possibly longer into April 2022.

…

2021 continues with a range that has become increasingly expansive since the move above 2500. With price above 4400 we can only assume that this will continue. This is a Brave New World and we should trade accordingly.

–

Regardless of whether the market can continue higher or whether significant lows are ahead of us, the simplicity of the proprietary price based S/T Signalling System will continue to keep us on the correct side of the market, with price currently back on a Buy Signal since moving above 4332-40 on 21 July 2021.

If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.

–

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intra-day alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area, Explanatory Notes (pdf) for all of the concepts discussed, and Notes on Day Trading (pdf)

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

A roller-coaster week in response to the holiday push above 4300 with a drop into Thursday's low at 4290 and new S/T Buy Signal triggered on 09 June at 4341.

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Making new all time highs with an impressive and very rapid move from low to high but still displaying (some) weakness in the oscillators and questioning the conviction for higher prices.

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The T volume oscillator ¹ was warning of weakness at the previous high, and is still negative and this is indicating profit-taking under the hood and perhaps a lack of conviction or participation in the current advance. However further strength and a rise upwards through the shallower cash build up line would activate another oscillator Buy Signal and suggest that the current T structure is larger or that a new structure is in development.

¹ The T volume oscillator is an indication of Buying Power within the market as a whole
² The cash build-up line is a declining line drawn above a series of lower highs made in the oscillator.

Save the image to your desktop to view a larger version

In the weekly chart above, we can see that price continues to be strong within a rising channel established over the past year, The oscillator is however, declining and this is flashing a warning that this move may not be sustainable, much longer. The large structure, centered at the March 2020 low projects strength into Mid July and possibly into Mid September.

For now, the 4170 level is important support.

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The monthly chart continues to look excessive but the market continues higher beyond the projection for a major high from the Mega T structure, which may have completed in September 2020.

The current large structures project highs for August and/or for September 2021 and possibly longer into April 2022.

…

2021 continues with a range that has become increasingly expansive since the move above 2500. With price above 4300 we can only assume that this will continue. This is a Brave New World.

–

Regardless of whether the market can continue higher or whether significant lows are ahead of us, the simplicity of the proprietary price based S/T Signalling System will continue to keep us on the correct side of the market, with price currently back on a Buy Signal since moving above 4341 on 09 July 2021.

If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.

–

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intra-day alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area, Explanatory Notes (pdf) for all of the concepts discussed, and Notes on Day Trading (pdf)

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

 

Love looks not with the eyes, but with the mind,
And therefore is winged Cupid painted blind.

Willam Shakespeare, A Midsummer Night's Dream, c.1595-96

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Market making new all time highs hitting another important milestone, with money printing and infrastructure spending to the moon, 'tulip' manias and manipulation in 'meme' stocks, inflation in assets, commodities and apparent on main street…

Buy Signal continues.

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A couple of months of range trading since the high in mid April, mostly pushing at 4200 but with a few quick and nasty drops, back filling but holding above the psychologically important 4000 level. Building an upper range.

Most recently a Buy Signal at 4220 after a brief 'taper tantrum' and a straight up move into new all time highs and reaching the key level of 4280 at the end of the second quarter.

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The T volume oscillator ¹ shows the deterioration in buying power that was occurring from about 08 June whilst the market was moving into the projection for a high from the previous structures and notably from the recent DB (Double bottom) structure.

However, the subsequent rapid recovery from the selling on 18 June has now triggered a new oscillator Buy Signal with a strong rise up through the declining cash build up line ² and this now projects strength into 06-07 July from the previous oscillator high.

¹ The T volume oscillator is an indication of Buying Power within the market as a whole
² The cash build-up line is a declining line drawn above a series of lower highs made in the oscillator.

Save the image to your desktop to view a larger version

In the weekly chart above, we can see that price continues to be strong, finding support at last week's low. The oscillator is however, declining and this is flashing a warning that this move may not be sustainable. The large structure, centered at the March 2020 low projects strength into Mid July and possibly into Mid September.

For now, the 4160 level is important support.

Save the image to your desktop to view a larger version

The monthly chart continues to look excessive but the market continues higher beyond the projection for a major high from the Mega T structure, which may have completed in September 2020.

The current large structures project highs for August and/or for September 2021 and possibly longer into April 2022.

…

2021 continues with a range that has become increasingly expansive since the move above 2500. With price above 4000 we can only assume that this will continue. This is a Brave New World.

–

Regardless of whether the market can continue higher or whether significant lows are ahead of us, the simplicity of the proprietary price based S/T Signalling System will continue to keep us on the correct side of the market, with price currently on a Buy Signal since moving above 4220 on 21 June 2021.

If you would like to learn more about using the S/T Signalling System please get in touch.

–

Be prepared for what is coming next and trade with confidence:

To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the 'Explanatory Notes' for all of the concepts discussed as well as the new 'Notes on Daytrading' which provides insight into how to look for shorter term entries and exits within the context of the S/T Signalling System.