Steve Rushton, Author at Trading the Line

About Steve Rushton

Macronite

Time for an update on the S&P 500.

In my last report, I mused upon the question: is it about to get unpleasant, as the market squeezed, gently, downwards.

I pointed out that the next Echo low projected by the extremely long range T structure associated with the early 2016 double bottom was expected to be around the 19 – 22 April.

At the time the market was triangulating and displaying bullish divergence in the oscillator, whilst at the same time respecting the defined downward trend channel.

Prior to the recent French Election, the market displayed volatility warnings not disimilar to those prior to Brexit and the US Election.

A few votes later and we have a huge volatility crush and markets open up well above the previously defined channel. Markets held firm and quickly rallied above the initial pop and headed for the 2400 level.

The result:

An S/T (short term) Buy Signal and a strong move of the (Magic) T Volume oscillator up through the long cash build up line marked in green.
This in turn produces a new large T structure drawing power from the cash-build up line and projecting strength forward in time equal to the amount of time that the market has been declining (as described by the oscillator). Each wave down in the oscillator has the potential for producing a wave upwards equal in time.
Arms of this new T structure project forward into May and potentially into June.

The caveat:

With such a rapid move back towards the 2400 level, there is always the possibility of failure, and it is true that the market has recently been in a mode of selling the strength and buying weakness. It is entirely possible that we see a short-term double top, and a pullback here. If this occurs, it will require a new low in price and oscillator to significantly change the bullish outlook.

Zooming out to my weekly chart, the super large T structure centred on the early 2016 double bottom still seems alive and well. There isn't an obvious projection for another major peak until the week of 09 June, as the T structure still seems to be drawing power from the mid 2014 declines – from prices above those of the 2016 lows.

However we should acknowledge the strong 'resistance' apparent at the current highs due to the long term gann projections from the 2000 March and September tops. Movement above these levels will open up the possibility of considerably higher prices.

The market reveals its intentions one day at a time and reserves the right to change its mind on a moments notice.

We watch the oscillator for clues, but we use price as the leading indicator.

Be prepared for what is coming next.

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Steve Rushton April 27, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Rosa d’Abril

A push higher within pennies of the all time high is met with stiff horizontal resistance, and above the 2 important rising lines, as the market loses some of its power (for now) and looks to take a well earned pause in its climb back.

Yesterday we reached the end of an arm of the amalgamation T, and today we reach an arm of the New T structure, and so a pause for consolidation or pull-back would be likely. Perhaps another test of resistance at 2398 first.

If we do see a retracement, watch for support before a decision is made about higher prices.

Of course, strength above 2400 will push directly higher into the echo high scheduled for 1st May.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Steve Rushton April 27, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Aldobrandesca

Another gap and a push higher into the long term 'resistance' line at 2392.

The strength of this week's move has taken the T volume oscillator up through a long cash-build up line – at least back to the previous all time high – and so we can draw a new large T structure from the most recent low on April 13. Initial strength projects the first arm this week and projects further strength into mid and late May.

The amalgamation T structure centred inbetween the 2 lows also projects initial highs for yesterday and further strength into May. The prescence of the 2 oscillator lows prior to the price lows may have some further influence, but had been 'warning' of the bullish nature of the market throughout the recent correction.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton April 26, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

A crush on you

The market pops up on the French election news, and holds steady for the day, well above the Buy Signal level.

Volatility as measured by the VIX is crushed.

The small T centred on the most recent low projected its first arm for yesterday, as does the possible amalgamation T structure (red), and so some kind of pause or pullback here would make sense – perhaps a quick spike down into the 60s.

The market found support at 2369 yesterday and so below this we may see some selling in the next few days.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton April 25, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update S&P500 signal

Troy

Do not trust the horse, Trojans.
Whatever it is, I fear the Greeks even when they bring gifts.
– Virgil, in the Aeneid (c. 29 – 19 BC), II, 4

Market backs away from the Buy Signal on Thursday and it will need re-confirming as the choppy recent nature of the market returns to add yet another layer of resistance.

The T volume oscillator fails at the zero line (again), but the Osc oscillator appears to be in recovery.

SKEW heads higher to extreme levels, reflecting the perceived event risk to markets, financials and currency related to the French election etc

Expect a volatile week ahead.

—

Futures currently indicating a very strong start to the week and a huge move up well above the Buy Signal level, looking like we will be negotiating the resistance levels in the 2370s, 2380s and 2390s. The small T drawn at the most recent low gives strength for a high today, and an extension into the 27th.

How the market deals with today's expected 'pop' will be quite revealing.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton April 23, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Freeze it

“That's why we seize the moment try to freeze it and own it, squeeze it and hold it.”
– Eminem

A short term Buy Signal as the squeeze and triangle pattern resolves to the upside, and at least for now, there is an attempt to move out of the descending channel.

Of course stiffer resistance lies above in the 2360s and 2370s, so this may be a short term move.

The T volume oscillator recovers back just above zero and continues to show bullish divergence in breadth.

The small collapsing T with the oscillator low at the 21 March drop and price low on 27 March expires today and this could present a high in the market. Further strength into May could be attributed to an amalgamation of the recent lows in price and oscillator but that remains to be seen.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton April 21, 2017No Comments

S&P500 intraday update S&P500 signal

S/T BUY Signal above 2348

A nice strong push upwards off the support line at 2341 finds the market playing at the upper level again and IF the market holds onto the gains, we have a Buy Signal above 2348.

As with yesterday, if this is sold into it and the market is going to continue its choppy range-bound behaviour then a visit back down to the recent support levels may be in order.

Steve Rushton April 20, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Gap up and down

Yet another failed Bull move as sellers take out the gap up and push it back down to the 55 ema.
Sell signal still very active.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton April 19, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Expeditus

No follow through on monday's relief rally, and an inside day holding up above the 55 and forming yet another triangle.

Tightening bollingers indicate a squeeze in process.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton April 19, 2017No Comments

S&P500 daily update

Amalgamation

A snapback rally, back to the Signal levels for a test of previous support from below.

Strength returning above the 55 ema is a positive, as the market aims to put in a double bottom and perhaps launch another attempt at the descending resistance.

It could be just the remains of the small collapsing T, or it could be the amalgamation of the 3 recent lows combining to produce a new possible T structure.

Be prepared for whatever comes next:

Steve Rushton April 18, 2017No Comments

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

2026 Positions

(All numbers refer to SPX)

S/T SELL Signal below 7422 on 23 June

COVER Signal below 7452 at 7365 on 23 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7500 on 18 June

COVER Short Signal at 7500 on 18 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7424 on 17 June

COVER Signal at 7454 on 17 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7404 on 11 June

COVER Short Signal at 7337 on 10 June

S/T SELL Signal at 7462 on 05 June

COVER Signal at 7553 on 05 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7586 on 04 June

COVER Signal at 7554 on 03 June

S/T BUY Signal at 7413 on 20 May

COVER Signal at 7411 on 15 May

S/T BUY Signal at 6457 on 31 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6398 on 31 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6543 on 26 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6600 at 6620 on 25 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6567 on 25 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6581 on 24 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6554 on 24 Mar

COVER Signal at 6590 on 23 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6623 on 23 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6563 at 6600 on 23 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6666 on 18 Mar

COVER Signal at 6693 on 18 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6729 on 16 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6668 at 6698 on 16 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6756 on 11 Mar

S/T BUY Signal above 6826 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6792 on 10 Mar

S/T SELL Signal at 6765 on 10 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6772 on 09 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6810 on 06 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6822 on 05 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6822 on 05 Mar

COVER Signal below 6849 on 05 Mar

S/T BUY Signal at 6882 on 04 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6849 on 04 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6845 on 03 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6877 on 02 Mar

S/T SELL Signal below 6850 on 02 Mar

COVER Short Signal above 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6857 on 27 Feb

COVER Signal below 6884 at 6857 on 27 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6884 on 23 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6850 on 23 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 23 Feb

COVER Signal at 6864 on 23 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6883 on 18 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6834 on 17 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6888 on 12 Feb

COVER Signal at 6915 on 12 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6899 on 06 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 06 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6901 on 04 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

S/T SELL Signal at 6915 on 03 Feb

COVER Signal at 6942 on 03 Feb

S/T BUY Signal at 6968 on 02 Feb

COVER Short Signal at 6938 on 30 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6910 on 30 Jan

COVER Signal at 6940 on 30 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6907 on 29 Jan

COVER Signal at 6934 on 29 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6905 at 6923 on 22 Jan

COVER Signal at 6849 on 21 Jan

S/T SELL Signal below 6894 at 6843 on 20 Jan

COVER Signal below 6925 at 6843 on 20 Jan

S/T BUY Signal at 6961 on 15 Jan

COVER Signal below 6934 at 6925 on 14 Jan

S/T BUY Signal above 6890 at 6900 on 05 Jan

COVER Short Signal at 6864 on 02 Jan

S/T SELL Signal at 6837 on 02 Jan

Mission

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.

The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.

And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

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