A navigation system for trading the S&P500 index
Pre-market push higher has the market open up above the Buy Signal line.
We do have a descending resistance line at 2439-40 and so it would be good to see the market hold above this area.
No CommentsAnother brief visit to the 55 and a bounce back into the descending resistance.
Market neutral and still waiting for a catalyst.
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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsMarket taking a look-see at the descending resistance and finding it slightly too much for now.
Still in the crapshoot.
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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsIf you want to find the secrets of the universe, think in terms of energy, frequency and vibration.
– Nikola Tesla
A relief bounce on Friday takes the market back towards the Buy Signal line and towards the strong descending resistance lines.
A break above the descending resistance should project the market back towards all time highs for a late July high in-line with the next arm of the New T structure. But a break lower below the recent bounces off the 55 ema would signal a visit towards the lower support levels of the channel.
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To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsMarket back on fine form today and re-gaining that important trend line.
If the market can hold onto these gains there is the potential for a small T into late July.
But plenty of descending resistance lines to negotiate first.
Failure of this level again would be another short opportunity.
No CommentsA Sell Signal triggered at the open yesterday and a valiant attempt at a recovery off an important support area including the long support line from the Election low.
The market is now back at the important 55 ema which has supported recent pull-backs and is a pivot point within the defined channel. Much more selling and this opens up a trap-door for a visit to the bottom of the gray channel, or even lower.
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To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsMarket opened close to the Sell Signal line and dropped quickly to 2413 for a strong bounce back to 2420.
2413 looks like strong support for now but if the selling resumes and 2413 fails then I think we will see 2406 again, perhaps lower.
No CommentsMarket triangulating within the rising and descending lines, and within what I define as 'chopshop' with the market oscillating from Buy to Sell Signal levels and building up energy for the next move, direction undecided.
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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsA brief 'Buy' signal rapidly faded at descending resistance and at the end arm of the current T structure marked red.
Expect more chop as the squeeze resolves, and potentially still looking for a low to set up the next move.
IF the market continues lower we should look for support on the next series of support lines in the 2390s and 2370s.
However, IF last week's spike low to 2406 holds, we have a possible small T which projects into mid July and synchronises with the next arm of the New T structure.
Enjoy your Independence.
Be prepared for whatever comes next:
To receive detailed daily analysis, guidance and the updated daily Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line system before the market opens, and intraday alerts when appropriate, please become a Member and Sign up for Alerts & Observations – includes access to Members Area and the Explanatory Notes for all of the concepts discussed.
Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No CommentsI've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.
– Bladerunner, 1982. Dir. Ridley Scott
Time for an update on the S&P 500.
With the market's recent visit to 2450 and some additional volatility entering the scene, the question arises: is it time for the market to rollover, and time to die?
Unfortunately the crystal ball is rather cloudy, but I think it is interesting to look at the various causes and effects, and weigh up the possibilities.
Each of the major lows has a T structure, and we can see that these structures drawn from previous highs to lows make projections in time that produce highs. The oscillator reveals the breadth or force of buying power behind the market's moves, and reveals some of the important turning points.
What we can see at the moment is that the very long range T structure (purple) associated with the January-February 2016 Double bottom is having a downward endgame effect. So too is the T structure associated with the Election low – I have drawn extensions of this structure back to the previous oscillator high (+148), and it looks like the most recent all time high coincides with this. And there may be another one in the next few days.
The pale blue structure associated with the second low of the major double bottom projects Echo lows, and interestingly this includes last week's visit to 2406, which occurred on an important rising line from the Election low, and at the important pivot line – the 55 exponential moving average.
The behaviour of the oscillator in recent months – breaking up through the descending cash-build up lines, albeit briefly – is still supportative of the 2 most recent T Structures with possible projections into August.
So – imminent collapse, or summer rally? Perhaps a bit of both. Violation of that important rising line and the 55 ema would most probably set up a short trip lower, where we most probably will find some renewed interest in pushing the market higher.
The weekly chart above shows the full potential range of the long range Double Bottom structure of early 2016. As you can see the market has been tackling the long term resistance lines that I have drawn from the March and September 2000 tops. I believe that when the market moves upwards through these lines it will set up a significant move higher. I suspect that it may be similar to the June 2014 breakthrough, which wasn't straight up but a process of re-testing the previous significant low and building a platform. Perhaps 2320-30 will become significant at future lows prior to the next major advance?
In the meantime it looks like the next important peak will be in the week of 4 August, with perhaps a more significant peak in the week of 25 August. How much of a pullback is required first, and whether to expect higher or lower highs is unclear, and is dependent upon what happens next.
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