A good question and one that many will be asking as the Dow finds itself above 20k and the S&Ps near 2300.
And so now is a good time to check the major T structure.
As you can see there was an expectation to move into a peak around the 24-25 January but because of the choppy behaviour in mid January and the movement through and below the important rising gann line from the low, it seemed a long time coming and uncertain.
Looking at the previous bull run off the 'Brexit' low a similar thing happened just after the major arm (from the previous major peak) of the T structure expired. On that occasion, the market attempted to recover and then subsequently collapsed. A kiss good bye of the rising line, if you will.
Unfortunately the T volume oscillator seems to be struggling at a similar juncture, leading me to think that we may be about to see a similar pattern of behaviour, and further weakness in price and/or the oscillator would give that more credence.
Of course we still have a final projection for the T structure for late February and the oscillator drop from the peak (at +80) is steep and linear, indicating consistent selling at that time. That would suggest a linear move into the late February peak.
Whether we get a significant drop here or not remains to be seen, and that will determine whether the final peak is a higher high or a lower high.
We watch the oscillator for clues, but we use price as the leading indicator.
Be prepared for whatever comes next.
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